关键词: 大棚草莓, 产量预测, 预报模型, 大棚小气候, 有效积温, 辐热积

Abstract:

The study aims to establish a strawberry yield forecasting model for unheated greenhouses in climate-similar regions in the south of the Yangtze River, represented by Cixi of Zhejiang Province. According to the main growth periods and the physiological characteristics of fruit growth of greenhouse strawberry in winter and spring, we used statistical data of strawberry yield in greenhouses in Zhejiang Province Facility Agricultural Meteorological Experiment Station (Cixi) from 2011 to 2021 and the microclimatic data of various microclimate elements in greenhouses during the period of yield formation for the study. Then, we adopted the polynomial forecasting method to establish a multiple regression model based on key microclimatic factors such as effective accumulated temperature and radiative heat accumulation and the strawberry yield, and built a yield forecasting model of greenhouse strawberry for the south of the Yangtze River. The average accuracy of the yield forecasting model was 95.3%, and the minimum accuracy was above 90%. The model had good accuracy and could provide more accurate forecasting information for the annual yield of greenhouse strawberry. This study can be a basis for the yield forecast of greenhouse strawberry in the south of the Yangtze River and the production of greenhouse fruits and vegetables in other climate-similar regions.

Key words: greenhouse strawberry, yield forecast, forecasting model, greenhouse microclimate, effective accumulated temperature, radiative heat accumulation