采用逐步回归法和积温法，利用2003—2013 年济宁桃花的物候观测数据和DPS 软件，建立了2种桃花盛花期预报模式。经检验，逐步回归预报模式效果较好，预报准确率满足业务要求，可用于济宁地区桃花的花期预报，及时为政府和果农提供准确的盛花期预报；积温预报模式效果稍差，可以用于对逐步回归预报模式的对比和补充。

Using stepwise regression method and accumulated, utilized peach phonology observations and DPS, The establishment of two kinds of flowering peach forecasting model. Upon examination, stepwise regression prediction model was better than the accumulated mode, forecast accuracy to meet the operational requirements, could be used to forecast Jining flowering peach, timely and accurate forecasts for the government and farmers, accumulated prediction model could be used to contrast and complement to the stepwise regression prediction model.