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农学学报 ›› 2021, Vol. 11 ›› Issue (5): 91-96.doi: 10.11923/j.issn.2095-4050.cjas2020-0258

所属专题: 农业气象

• 农业信息/农业气象 • 上一篇    下一篇

不同天气类型下大棚葡萄温湿度预报模型

肖杨1,2(), 王冠1, 袁淑杰3(), 于飞4   

  1. 1唐山市气象局,河北唐山 063000
    2贵州省山地气候与资源重点实验室,贵阳 550002
    3成都信息工程大学,成都 610225
    4贵州省山地环境气候研究所,贵阳 550002
  • 收稿日期:2020-11-27 修回日期:2021-01-18 出版日期:2021-05-20 发布日期:2021-06-29
  • 通讯作者: 袁淑杰 E-mail:xiaoyang9891@163.com;ysj@cuit.edu.cn
  • 作者简介:肖杨,男,1988年出生,河北易县人,助理工程师,硕士,研究方向:农业气象学与气象防灾减灾。通信地址:063000 河北省唐山市裕丰街169号 唐山市气象局生态气候中心,Tel:0315-2016770,E-mail: xiaoyang9891@163.com
  • 基金资助:
    贵州省高层次创新人才培养项目[黔科合平台人才(2016)4026];唐山市气象局科研项目(20KY01)

Temperature and Relative Humidity Forecast Model of Greenhouse Grape Under Different Weather Types

Xiao Yang1,2(), Wang Guan1, Yuan Shujie3(), Yu Fei4   

  1. 1Tangshan Meteorological Bureau, Tangshan 063000, Hebei, China
    2Guizhou Key Laboratory of Mountains Climate and Resources, Guiyang 550002, Guizhou, China
    3Chengdu University of Information Technology,Chengdu 610225, Sichuan, China
    4Guizhou Institute of Mountains Environment and Climate, Guiyang 550002, Guizhou, China
  • Received:2020-11-27 Revised:2021-01-18 Online:2021-05-20 Published:2021-06-29
  • Contact: Yuan Shujie E-mail:xiaoyang9891@163.com;ysj@cuit.edu.cn

摘要:

为了预先掌握葡萄各生育期棚内温湿度环境,从而让农户有充足时间调整大棚管理措施,降低气象灾害风险,利用2018年11月—2019年6月大棚内外观测资料,分析了不同天气类型下棚内温湿度与棚外气象要素的相关性,并通过逐步回归方法建立了棚内逐小时温湿度预报模型。结果表明:棚内温湿度与棚外气温、空气相对湿度、风速、日照时长有不同程度的相关性,晴天和多云大棚内外要素之间相关系数大多在0.3以上,棚内气温与棚外要素的相关性更高且最大相关系数超过0.9,阴天相关性较低;棚内逐小时气温、空气相对湿度模型的R2多在0.5以上,气温模型预报值与实测值的均方根误差(RSME)≤3.7℃、平均绝对误差(MAE)≤2.9℃,空气相对湿度模型预报值与实测值的均方根误差≤13.3%、平均绝对误差≤10.6%。所得模型填补了该地区大棚葡萄各生育期温湿度预报的空白,为田间管理提供了参考依据。

关键词: 大棚葡萄, 生育期, 气温, 空气相对湿度, 相关系数, 预报模型

Abstract:

To obtain the temperature and relative humidity in greenhouse during each grape growth period in advance, give farmers enough time to adjust greenhouse management measures and reduce the risk of meteorological disasters, this paper compared the observation data inside and outside the greenhouse from November 2018 to June 2019. Correlations between temperature and relative humidity inside the greenhouse and meteorological elements outside the greenhouse under different weather types were analyzed, and hourly temperature and relative humidity forecast model in the greenhouse were established through the stepwise regression method. The results show that the temperature and relative humidity inside the greenhouse have the correlations with temperature, relative humidity, wind speed and sunshine duration outside the greenhouse of different levels. On sunny and cloudy days, the correlation coefficients between the factors inside and outside the greenhouse are mostly above 0.3. The correlations are higher and the maximum correlation coefficients are more than 0.9, while the correlations in cloudy days are low. R2 of hourly temperature and relative humidity forecast models in the greenhouse are mostly above 0.5. The RSME between the result of the temperature forecast model and the measured value is less than or equal to 3.7℃, and the MAE ≤2.9℃. The RSME of the model-forecasted relative humidity and the measured value are less than or equal to 13.3%, and the MAE ≤10.6%. To conclude, the models filled in the blank of the temperature and relative humidity forecast of the greenhouse grape in each growth period in this area, and could provide scientific reference for field management.

Key words: Greenhouse Grapes, Growth Period, Temperature, Relative Humidity, Correlation Coefficient, Forecast Model

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