关键词: 三门峡市, 红富士苹果, 始花期, 预测模型

Abstract:

In order to improve the prediction level of the first flowering date of Red Fuji apple in Sanmenxia and enhance the variety’s tolerance to freezing injury during flowering period, the relationship between meteorological factors and the first flowering date was analyzed in this study. According to different data combinations, four prediction models of the first flowering date were established by regression method. The results showed that the average temperature in mid-March, the average temperature in late March, the average temperature in March, the ≥0℃ accumulated temperature, the ≥3℃ active accumulated temperature and the effective accumulated temperature, the ≥5℃ active accumulated temperature and the effective accumulated temperature were significantly and negatively correlated with the first flowering date. The <0℃ accumulated temperature was positively correlated with the first flowering date. The first flowering date had poor correlation with precipitation and sunshine duration. By verification, the model based on the ≥3℃ active accumulated temperature and the <0℃ accumulated temperature was the optimal one for predicting the first flowering date. The model can provide meteorological service for local Apple Blossom Festival and guidance on preventing the freezing injury during flowering period.

Key words: Sanmenxia City, Red Fuji apple, first flowering date, prediction model