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农学学报 ›› 2015, Vol. 5 ›› Issue (1): 130-133.doi: 10.11923/j.issn.2095-4050.2014-xb0407

• 农业信息 农业气象 • 上一篇    下一篇

天水市近63年极端温度变化特征分析

姚延锋,朱恩超,安晶,李悦,汪鸿滨   

  1. 甘肃省天水市气象局,甘肃省天水市气象局,甘肃省天水市气象局,,天水市气象局
  • 收稿日期:2014-04-18 修回日期:2014-04-18 接受日期:2014-06-16 出版日期:2015-01-29 发布日期:2015-01-29
  • 通讯作者: 姚延锋 E-mail:姚延锋
  • 基金资助:
    中央财政资金中国气象局预报司业务专项“西北区强对流预报预警业务平台建设”(QDLYJ2013-001)。

Extreme Temperature Variability in Tianshui over the past 63 years

  • Received:2014-04-18 Revised:2014-04-18 Accepted:2014-06-16 Online:2015-01-29 Published:2015-01-29

摘要: 为了研究气候变暖对天水极端温度的影响,利用天水观测站1951年至2013年逐年的极端温度资料,运用气候倾向率、趋势系数、百分位法、滑动T检验等统计方法,分析极端温度对气候变暖的响应特征。结果表明:天水年极端最高(低)温度均呈显著性升高趋势,极端最高气温上升0.2℃/10a,极端最低气温上升0.3℃/10a,都通过了α=0.01的显著性检验;通过百分位法定义了极端温度的阈值,分析发现:极端最高气温与阈值的差值随时间序列的增加逐步增大,极端最低气温与阈值的差值随时间序列的增加逐步减少,对极端最高温度和极端最低温度利用滑动T检验法进行突变检验,在α=0.01显著性水平下,极端最低温度没有发生突变,而极端最高温度在1983年和1993年发生了两次十分明显的突变。

关键词: 生长素, 生长素, Aux/IAA基因家族, 信号转导, 基因功能, 调控机制

Abstract: Evaluation of extreme temperature changes in Tianshui under global warming is studied based on annual extreme temperature data from 1951 to 2013. To better understand the variability and long-term trend of extreme temperature, various mathematical statistics methods, including the climate tendency rate, climate tendency coefficient, percentile threshold value method and slidingT -test method, have been used. Results indicate that annual extreme temperature showed a significant increase trend over the past 63 years. The extreme high-temperature rate of increase is estimated as 0.2℃/10 a, while the extreme low-temperature increased by 0.3℃/10 a, which are all statistically significant at 99% confidence level. The threshold values of temperature extremes have been determined using the percentile threshold value method, we find that the difference between the extreme high-temperature (extreme low-temperature) and the corresponding threshold value increased (decreased) with the length of time series. The temporal characteristics of extreme hightemperature and extreme low-temperature trends are analyzed by using sliding T-test method. There is no significant abrupt change in extreme low-temperature at 99% confidence level. In contrast, the extreme hightemperature changes abruptly in 1983 and 1993.