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农学学报

农学学报 ›› 2025, Vol. 15 ›› Issue (7): 74-83.doi: 10.11923/j.issn.2095-4050.cjas2024-0094

• 农业信息 农业气象 • 上一篇    下一篇

1961—2020年东北三省大豆生产潜力及潜力实现率时空格局研究

崔修来1,2(), 米娜1(), 童尧2, 孙瑶2, 原久淞2, 高智2, 王东2   

  1. 1 中国气象局沈阳大气环境研究所，沈阳 110166
    2 辽宁省营口市气象局，辽宁营口 115001
  • 收稿日期:2024-05-08 修回日期:2025-02-17 出版日期:2025-07-20 发布日期:2025-07-18
  • 通讯作者:
    米娜，女，1979年出生，辽宁锦州人，研究员，博士，主要从事农业气象学研究。通信地址：110166 辽宁省沈阳市和平区长白南路388号，E-mail：。
  • 作者简介:

    崔修来，男，1985年出生，辽宁海城人，高级工程师，主要从事农业气象学方面的研究。通信地址：115000 辽宁省营口市站前区公园路新气象里44号 营口市气象局，Tel：0417-3539876，E-mail:。

  • 基金资助:
    2021年中国气象局沈阳大气环境研究所联合开放基金课题(2021SYIAEKFMS33)

Research on Spatio-temporal Pattern of Soybean Production Potential and Potential Realization Rate in Three Northeastern Provinces from 1961 to 2020

CUI Xiulai1,2(), MI Na1(), TONG Yao2, SUN Yao2, YUAN Jiusong2, GAO Zhi2, WANG Dong2   

  1. 1 Shenyang Institute of Atmospheric Environment, China Meteorological Administration, Shenyang 110166
    2 China Yingkou Meteorological Bureau, Yingkou, Liaoning 115001
  • Received:2024-05-08 Revised:2025-02-17 Online:2025-07-20 Published:2025-07-18

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摘要：

本研究旨在探究东北三省大豆各级生产潜力时空变化规律及其变异系数、距平百分率、实现率等分布情况，提出生产潜力开发利用对策。以东北三省1961—2020年逐日气象数据和研究区大豆作物系数为基础，运用“逐步订正法”计算了东北三省各地大豆的光合、光温和气候生产潜力，在此基础上利用Arcgis进行分析。结果表明，东北三省生产潜力空间分布情况为光合生产潜力、光温生产潜力分布趋势都是由北向南递增，气候生产潜力是辽宁东部最高，吉林中部和黑龙江中南部次之，黑龙江西北部最低。光合生产潜力距平变化率在-18%~11%，变化区间接近30个百分点；光温生产潜力和气候生产潜力距平变化率范围都较大，有70~80个百分点。光合生产潜力变异系数大多在5%以下，光温生产潜力变异系数大多在10%以下，气候生产潜力的变异系数最高达到20%左右，最低也在10%以上，气候生产潜力较光温和光合生产潜力的稳定性较差。东北三省大豆实际产量空间分布情况与生产潜力实现率分布情况比较匹配，均为吉林中部和黑龙江东部较高，可选择在各级生产潜力实现率都较高的区域进行大豆扩种，适当提升高标准农田建设标准，兴建灌溉、排涝设施保证水资源的最优供应，将有效提升光温资源对于大豆产量提升的贡献。

关键词: 东北三省, 大豆, 气候, 生产潜力, 大豆扩种, 生产潜力变化, 生产潜力实现率

Abstract:

Based on the daily meteorological data of the three provinces in Northeast China from 1961 to 2020 and the soybean crop coefficients of the research area, the progressive correction method was used to calculate the photosynthetic, photosynthetic temperature and climate production potential of soybeans in various regions of the three provinces in Northeast China. ArcGIS was used for analysis to explore the spatial and temporal variation laws of production potential at all levels, as well as its coefficient of variation, anomaly percentage, and realization rate. Countermeasures for the development and utilization of production potential were proposed. The results indicated that the spatial distribution of production potential in the three provinces in Northeast China was that the distribution trends of photosynthetic and photosynthetic temperature production potentials were increasing from north to south, and climate production potential was highest in eastern Liaoning, followed by central Jilin and south-central Heilongjiang, with the lowest in northwest of Heilongjiang. The photosynthetic production potential anomaly change rate was between -18% and 11%, with a change interval closing to 30 percentage points. The photosynthetic temperature production potential and climate production potential anomaly change rates had a wide range, with 70-80 percentage points. The coefficient of variation of photosynthetic production potential was mostly below 5%, while that of photosynthetic temperature production potential was mostly below 10%. The coefficient of variation of climate production potential was as high as about 20%, and the lowest was still above 10%. The stability of climate production potential was poorer than that of photosynthetic temperature and photosynthesis. The spatial distribution of actual soybean yield in the three provinces in Northeast China matched that of the realization rate of production potential, and both were higher in central Jilin and eastern Heilongjiang. We can choose to expand soybean cultivation in regions with higher realization rates of production potential at all levels, appropriately raise the construction standards of high-standard farmland, build irrigation and drainage facilities to ensure optimal water supply, and effectively improve the contribution of photosynthetic temperature resources to soybean yield increase.

Key words: Three Northeastern Provinces, soybean, climate, production potential, soybean expansion, changes in production potential, production potential realization rate