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农学学报

农学学报 ›› 2016, Vol. 6 ›› Issue (11): 85-89.doi: 10.11923/j.issn.2095-4050.cjas16060015

• 三农问题研究 农村产业结构 • 上一篇    下一篇

福建省粮食需求量预测研究

白丽月   

  1. 福建省农村工作研究中心
  • 收稿日期:2016-06-20 修回日期:2016-10-10 接受日期:2016-10-17 出版日期:2016-11-25 发布日期:2016-11-25
  • 通讯作者: 白丽月 E-mail:bailiyue0526
  • 基金资助:
    2014 年福建省属公益类科研院所基本科研专项“土地规模经营问题与对策研究”(2014R1027-2)。

Prediction of Grain Demand in Fujian Province

  • Received:2016-06-20 Revised:2016-10-10 Accepted:2016-10-17 Online:2016-11-25 Published:2016-11-25

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摘要： 为了实现资源的效用最大化、提供福建省粮食安全新的数据支持，分析了2003—2012 年福建省粮食消费的特点，预测未来年份的粮食需求量。结果表明：第一，福建省粮食消费总量呈现递增的趋势，粮食消费结构也有较大幅度调整；第二，人均粮食消费量增加了44 kg，人均口粮消费量减少了12 kg，人均饲料粮消费量增加了55 kg，饲料用粮大幅增加，是导致福建省人均粮食消费量大幅增长的主要原因；第三，比较不同经济发展水平下和平衡膳食模式下的人均粮食需求量，发现差异明显，实际人均消费量远高于合理人均需求量，不合理的食物消费结构造成了不合理的粮食浪费现象；第四，按照高、中、低3种不同的人均粮食需求量分别预测全省的粮食需求量，基于平衡膳食模式的粮食需求量能较真实地反映福建省的实际需求量，即2020、2025年全省粮食需求量分别为1222万t、1243万t。

关键词: 牛蒡根, 牛蒡根, 水溶性有机肥, 蛋白酶, 纤维素酶, 甜瓜

Abstract: To realize the maximum utilization of limited resources and provide new supporting data for food security in Fujian Province, the author analyzed grain consumption characteristics from 2003 to 2012 and predicted grain demand for the next several years. The results showed that, firstly, the total grain consumption in Fujian Province showed an increasing trend, and the consumption structure had a large variation. Secondly, grain consumption per capita increased 44 kg, ration consumption per capita decreased 12 kg, feed grain consumption per capita increased 55 kg. Substantial increase of feed grain was the main reason leading to the substantial growth of grain consumption per capita in Fujian Province. Thirdly, comparison of the grain consumption per capita at different economic levels and under reasonable dietary patterns showed that there were obvious differences. The actual consumption was higher than the theoretical values. Irrational grain consumption led to grain waste. Fourthly, according to the prediction of grain demand per capita at high, middle and low levels, prediction of grain demand based on reasonable dietary patterns could reflect the actual grain demand, and the grain demand was 12.22 million tons in 2020 and 12.43 million tons in 2025.