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农学学报

农学学报 ›› 2015, Vol. 5 ›› Issue (5): 114-117.doi: 10.11923/j.issn.2095-4050.2014-xb0594

所属专题： 园艺； 农业气象

• 农业信息 农业气象 • 上一篇    下一篇

庆阳市苹果花期霜冻灾害气象风险评估

张谋草,姚晓红,张红妮,周忠文,车向军,杜军   

  1. 甘肃省庆阳市气象局,甘肃省天水市气象局,甘肃省西峰农业气象试验站,甘肃省西峰农业气象试验站,甘肃省西峰国家农业气象试验站,甘肃省西峰国家农业气象试验站
  • 收稿日期:2014-06-23 修回日期:2014-06-23 接受日期:2014-10-14 出版日期:2015-06-02 发布日期:2015-06-02
  • 通讯作者: 张谋草 E-mail:zhangmc
  • 基金资助:
    甘肃省气象局科技处“果树气象灾害风险的综合评估技术和方法研究”(2014-12)。

Risk Assessment of Meteorological Frost Disaster During the Blossom Phase of Qingyang Apple

  • Received:2014-06-23 Revised:2014-06-23 Accepted:2014-10-14 Online:2015-06-02 Published:2015-06-02

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摘要： 为了对当地苹果生产的防灾减灾提供参考依据，有必要对苹果花期霜冻灾害进行风险评估。对西峰农试站苹果开花日期观测资料及结合灾情调查资料运用统计学方法进行分析。结果表明，庆阳市苹果花期霜冻危害的致灾因子主要是西峰区4月中旬至5月上旬极端最低气温和正宁县4月极端最低气温，两因子的影响权重分别达24%和76%；进而建立了庆阳市苹果花期霜冻危害风险模型并计算了灾情指数。使用该模型对1990—2012年苹果花期霜冻灾害风险评估结果与相对气象产量进行对照分析，表明灾情趋势完全一致，且灾情等级有差异，即发生霜冻危害程度与苹果所处的开花时期有关：苹果开花初期遇低温霜冻时危害较轻，开花末期或坐果期遇低温霜冻则危害较重。评估结果与实际吻合，所得模型具有客观实用性。

关键词: 商丘市, 商丘市, 光照, 温度, 降水, 演变特征

Abstract: In order to provide references of local’s disaster prevention and mitigation, it is necessary to assess the risk of frost disaster during apple florescence. This paper used statistical method to analyze the observed data from of apple’s blossom date which were got from Xifeng Agricultural Experiment Station. The results showed that: the main hazard factor of frost disaster during the flowering phase of Qingyang apple, was the extreme minimum temperature of Xifeng during mid April to early May and Ningxian’s in April. These two factors’influence weights had achieved 24% and 76%, respectively. Then, we built an evaluation model of frost disaster during the flowering phase of Qingyang apple. Comparatively analyzed the frost disaster during the flowering phase of apple from 1990 to 2012 by the model, it showed that apple was frosted would be harmed lightly while its early blossom phase, but seriously while its final blossom phase or fruit bearing phase.