关键词: 左权县, 降水量, 线性趋势, 突变分析, 农业生产, 影响

Abstract:

To grasp the variation rule of precipitation in Zuoquan, based on the monthly precipitation data from 1961 to 2015 of Zuoquan, we analyzed the variation trend and mutation characteristics of annual and seasonal precipitation in Zuoquan by using the methods of linear trend, 5-year moving average, M-K test and sliding t test. The results showed that: the annual precipitation in Zuoquan overall decreased at a rate of-12.6 mm/10 a, and had a decreasing trend in the 1960s-1990s and an increasing trend since the beginning of the 21 ^st century and there was a reduction mutation in 1968; seasonal precipitation variation showed a decreasing trend in spring, summer and autumn, and a slight increasing trend in winter, the inter decadal variation of precipitation in summer and autumn was consistent with the annual precipitation variation trend, but it fluctuated greatly to the precipitation in winter and spring, and the reduction mutation occurred in autumn of 1970, and the precipitation in spring mutated from less to more, and the precipitation in winter mutated from more to less and from less to more in 1976 and 2003, respectively; drought and rainstorm were major meteorological disasters affecting local agricultural production.

Key words: Zuoquan, Precipitation, Linear Trend, Mutation Analysis, Agricultural Production, Impact