北京山桃开花期变化及其气候影响因子分析

doi:10.11923/j.issn.2095-4050.cjas20190700116

农学学报 ›› 2020, Vol. 10 ›› Issue (9): 53-59.doi: 10.11923/j.issn.2095-4050.cjas20190700116

所属专题：农业气象

• 林学/园艺/园林/食用菌 • 上一篇下一篇

北京山桃开花期变化及其气候影响因子分析

董宛麟¹(), 王林鹏², 房志玲²(), 王晓晨³, 李超², 潘学标³

¹中国气象局气象干部培训学院,北京 100081
²北京市门头沟区气象局,北京 102308
³中国农业大学资源与环境学院农业气象系,北京 100193

收稿日期:2019-07-11 修回日期:2019-12-03 出版日期:2020-09-20 发布日期:2020-09-14
通讯作者: 房志玲 E-mail:dongwanlin2007@163.com;1908198380@qq.com
作者简介:董宛麟,女,1986年出生,吉林白山人,高级工程师,博士,主要从事农业生产对气候变化响应与适应技术研究。通信地址:100081 北京市海淀区中关村南大街46号中国气象局气象干部培训学院,Tel:010-68409766,E-mail: dongwanlin2007@163.com。
基金资助:
国家重点研发计划“中国植被物候对全球变化的响应机制及未来趋势”(2018YFA0606102)

Blooming Change and Its Climate Impact Factors of Prunus davidiana in Beijing

Dong Wanlin¹(), Wang Linpeng², Fang Zhiling²(), Wang Xiaochen³, Li Chao², Pan Xuebiao³

¹Cadre Training Centre, China Meteorological Administration, Beijing 100081, China
²Mentougou Meteorological Bureau, Beijing 102308, China
³Department of Agricultural Meteorological, College of Resources and Environmental Sciences, China Agricultural University, Beijing 100193, China

Received:2019-07-11 Revised:2019-12-03 Online:2020-09-20 Published:2020-09-14
Contact: Fang Zhiling E-mail:dongwanlin2007@163.com;1908198380@qq.com

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

为了给植被开花期预报和气候变化的生态影响评估提供科学依据,笔者利用1951—2004年北京颐和园山桃开花期观测资料,分析山桃开花期年际、年代际变化和影响其的气候因子。结果表明:山桃多年平均开花期为3月26日,年际间呈显著提前趋势。山桃开花期的转折点在1980s,1980s后呈显著提前趋势(P<0.01),较1950s—1970s平均提前6天。山桃10年平均、最晚、最早开花期均显著提前,尤其是2000年以后山桃的平均、最晚、最早开花期,较1951—1990年分别提前14天、14天、16天。影响山桃开花期时间最主要的是从当年1月1日到山桃开花期的平均气温。1980s开始影响山桃开花期显著提前的主要气候因子是时间段内（冬、春季）平均气温的升高。

关键词: 山桃, 物候, 开花期, 温度, 降水, 年代际, 气候因子

Abstract:

To provide a basis for the forecast of blooming stage and the ecological impact assessment of climate change, based on the observation data of Prunus davidiana at blooming stage in the Summer Palace in Beijing from 1951 to 2004, we analyzed the interannual and inter-decadal change of the blooming period of Prunus davidiana and the influencing climate factors. The results showed that: the average blooming date of Prunus davidiana was March 26, and there was a significant advance trend among the years; the turning point of the blooming period of Prunus davidiana was in 1980s, with a significant advance trend (P<0.01) after 1980s, which was 6 days earlier during 1980s-2000s than that during 1950s-1970s; the average, latest and earliest blooming period of Prunus davidiana of 10 years were all significantly advanced, especially after 2000, 14 days, 14 days and 16 days earlier, respectively, compared with those of 1951-1990; the average air temperature from 1 January to the blooming period was the main factor affecting the blooming date of Prunus davidiana; the increase of average air temperature (in winter and spring) before blooming was the main climate factor which significantly promoted the blooming of Prunus davidiana after 1980s.

Key words: Prunus davidiana, Phenology, Blooming Stage, Temperature, Precipitation, Inter-decadal Variation, Climate Factor

中图分类号:

S1-6

董宛麟, 王林鹏, 房志玲, 王晓晨, 李超, 潘学标. 北京山桃开花期变化及其气候影响因子分析[J]. 农学学报, 2020, 10(9): 53-59.

Dong Wanlin, Wang Linpeng, Fang Zhiling, Wang Xiaochen, Li Chao, Pan Xuebiao. Blooming Change and Its Climate Impact Factors of Prunus davidiana in Beijing[J]. Journal of Agriculture, 2020, 10(9): 53-59.

图/表 5

图1. 不同年份山桃开花期变化

图2. 山桃开花期5年滑动平均变化和10年最晚、平均、最早开花期变化年际间变化

图3. 山桃开花期与降水的关系与1950s—1970s、1980s—2000s的降水量

图4. 山桃开花期与平均日照时数的关系与1950s—1970s、1980s—2000s的平均日照时数

图5. 山桃开花期与平均温度的关系与1950s—1970s、1980s—2000s的平均温度

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北京山桃开花期变化及其气候影响因子分析

Blooming Change and Its Climate Impact Factors of Prunus davidiana in Beijing

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