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农学学报 ›› 2017, Vol. 7 ›› Issue (12): 46-51.doi: 10.11923/j.issn.2095-4050.cjas17090019

所属专题: 现代农业发展与乡村振兴 农业气象

• 土壤肥料 资源环境 生态 • 上一篇    下一篇

2016年“520特大暴雨”的MCS触发机制分析及其对玉林农业影响

林宝亭,陆秋霖,陈明璐,苏尉宣   

  1. 玉林市气象局,玉林市气象局,玉林市气象局,玉林市气象局
  • 收稿日期:2017-09-27 修回日期:2017-10-27 接受日期:2017-11-02 出版日期:2017-12-15 发布日期:2017-12-15
  • 通讯作者: 林宝亭 E-mail:baoting86@163.com
  • 基金资助:
    广西玉林市气象局项目“多普勒雷达资料在暴雨临近预报的应用”(201603)。

A Torrential Rain in Yulin in 2016: MCS Triggering Mechanism and Its Impact on Agriculture

  • Received:2017-09-27 Revised:2017-10-27 Accepted:2017-11-02 Online:2017-12-15 Published:2017-12-15

摘要: 为了探讨广西玉林2016 年5 月20 日出现的特大暴雨,导致幼穗期的早稻严重失收、菜秧烂根、荔枝龙眼的幼果发育迟缓的成因。利用NCEP 1°×1°全球客观分析资料、常规气象资料,以及FY2E卫星云图的TBB反演和多普勒雷达数据,对此特大暴雨进行中尺度系统(MCS)及动力机制分析。结果表明:(1)高纬度环流呈“两槽一脊”,不断分裂东移的高空槽和副热带高压西北侧暖湿气流的配合,为玉林特大暴雨中MCS产生提供有利的环流背景;(2)高层强辐散与低层强辐合的耦合,有抽吸作用,利于MCS的发展,暴雨区出现在低空急流入口的左侧玉林一带;(3)玉林上空有明显的水汽辐合,充足的水汽条件使MCS得以维持;(4)MCS出现在对流云团中心和TBB梯度较大区域。以上原因造成玉林大范围特大暴雨天气,导致幼穗期的早稻严重失收、农业受灾重。拟总结经验,以期今后遇到类似的天气形势时,可以更好把握天气,提早预报,为防灾减灾提供参考依据。

关键词: 贵人香, 贵人香, 蛇龙珠, 不同转色时期, 摘叶处理, 果实品质

Abstract: The paper aims to explore the premature rice crop failure, vegetable seedling rotted root, and the growth retardation of litchi and longan during young spike period caused by the torrential rain in Yulin on May 20, 2016. Based on NCEP 1°×1° global objective analysis data, conventional meteorological data, TBB from FY2E infrared cloud and Doppler radar data, the authors analyzed the heavy rainstorm mesoscale system (MCS) and dynamic mechanism. The results showed that: (1) heavy rainstorm occurred in the“two slots and one ridge”under the large circulation background, the combination of the eastward flow and the warm and humid air flow in the northwest side of the subtropical high pressure provided a favorable circulation background for MCS; (2) the coupling of the high-level strong divergence and the low-level convergence was favorable to the vertical uplift and the occurrence of the MCS; the rainstorm occurred at the right side of the low-level jet entrance; (3) there was a clear convergence of water vapor over Yulin, providing sufficient water vapor, which allowed the MCS to maintain; (4) MCS occurred at the center of the convective cloud, i.e. the area with larger gradient of TBB. The above reasons for Yulin large-scale heavy rain weather led to heavy loss of early rice crop and other heavy agricultural disasters. This article intends to summarize the experience to better grasp the background of similar weather pattern and offer a reference for disaster prevention and mitigation.