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农学学报

农学学报 ›› 2024, Vol. 14 ›› Issue (3): 40-47.doi: 10.11923/j.issn.2095-4050.cjas2023-0097

• 植物保护 • 上一篇    下一篇

基于Maxent和ArcGIS加拿大一枝黄花适生区预测

常悦1(), 李玉静2, 李周旭2, 韩红英3, 石金梅1, 李良涛1   

  1. 1 河北工程大学园林与生态工程学院，河北邯郸 056038
    2 涉县林业发展服务中心，河北涉县 056400
    3 邯郸市林业和草原科研中心，河北邯郸 056004
  • 收稿日期:2023-04-28 修回日期:2023-07-21 出版日期:2024-03-16 发布日期:2024-03-16
  • 通讯作者:
    李良涛，男，1978年出生，河北邯郸人，博士，主要从事景观生态规划与生物多样性研究。通信地址：056038 河北省邯郸经济技术开发区太极19号 河北工程大学园林与生态工程学院，E-mail：liangtao-li@163.com。
  • 作者简介:

    常悦，女，1992年出生，河北邯郸人，在读硕士，主要从事生物多样性研究。通信地址：056038 河北省邯郸经济技术开发区太极19号 河北工程大学园林与生态工程学院，E-mail：。

  • 基金资助:
    河北省科技厅峰峰矿区四个一科技示范基地项目“峰峰矿区连翘产业科技示范基地”(202206); 河北省自然基金面上项目“模拟增温和干旱对太行山退化生境中人工林更新的影响研究”(C2020402022); 河北省自然基金面上项目邯郸市林业局“邯郸市林草湿外来入侵物种普查”(20221112)

Prediction of Suitable Growing Areas of Solidago canadensis L. Based on Maxent and ArcGIS

CHANG Yue1(), LI Yujing2, LI Zhouxu2, HAN Hongying3, SHI Jinmei1, LI Liangtao1   

  1. 1 College of Landscape and Ecological Engineering, Hebei University of Technology, Handan 056038, Hebei, China
    2 Shexian Forestry Development Service Center, Shexian 056400, Hebei, China
    3 Handan Forestry and Grassland Scientific Research Center, Handan 056004, Hebei, China
  • Received:2023-04-28 Revised:2023-07-21 Online:2024-03-16 Published:2024-03-16

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摘要：

为了研究加拿大一枝黄花在中国的适生区及其分布影响因素，以利于有效防控，采用最大熵模型(Maxent)和ArcGIS软件对加拿大一枝黄花2041—2060、2061—2080气候模式下在中国的潜在适生区进行预测。结果显示：当前适生区预测AUC值为0.933，模型预测结果理想；适生区分布主要受气温和降水影响；潜在适生区主要分布在华东和华中地区，以上海市全域、江苏省中南部、安徽省中部、江西省北部、湖南省东部、湖北省东部以及浙江省部分地区和沿海海岸线为主。随着时间推移，2041—2060年相比较于当前，高、中适生区的面积增加106.04万km2，低适生区增加110.62万km2；2061—2080年，高、中适生区的面积与当前相比增加110.99万km2，低适生区增加111.55万km2。总体来说，未来气候变化下，加拿大一枝黄花的适生区呈现出不断扩张的趋势，建议相关部门基于其潜在适生区的变化趋势制定响应的分级管理策略，以防止进一步扩散。

关键词: 入侵植物, 加拿大一枝黄花, Maxent模型, 气候变化

Abstract:

To study the suitable growth areas and distribution influencing factors of Solidago canadensis L. in China for effective prevention and control, the Maximum Entropy model (Maxent) and ArcGIS software were used to predict the potential habitat of Solidago canadensis L. in China under current and future (2041—2060 and 2061—2080) climate models. The results showed that the predicted AUC value of the current fitness zone was 0.933 and the model prediction results were ideal; the distribution of the fitness zone was mainly influenced by the maximum temperature and precipitation; the potential fitness zone was mainly distributed in east and central China, mainly in the whole area of Shanghai, south-central Jiangsu Province, central Anhui Province, northern Jiangxi Province, eastern Hunan Province, eastern Hubei Province, and some parts of Zhejiang Province and the area along the coastline. Over time, from 2041 to 2060, the area of the middle and high fitness zones will increase by 1060400 km2 and the low fitness zone will increase by 1106200 km2 compared with the present; from 2061 to 2080, the area of the high and middle fitness zones will increase by 1109900 km2 and the low fitness zone will increase by 1115500 km2 compared with the present. Overall, under future climate change, the habitat zone of Solidago canadensis L. shows a trend of continuous expansion, and it is suggested that the relevant authorities should develop a responsive hierarchical management strategy based on the changing trend of its potential habitat zone to prevent further spread.

Key words: invasive plant, Solidago canadensis L., Maxent model, climate change