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农学学报

农学学报 ›› 2025, Vol. 15 ›› Issue (2): 95-100.doi: 10.11923/j.issn.2095-4050.cjas2024-0006

• 农业信息 农业气象 • 上一篇    

基于灾损的日光温室雪灾预警等级研究

李昌玉(), 张令振(), 张婷华, 彭毛青措, 李君, 陈东卫, 李姝彬   

  1. 西宁市气象局，西宁 810016
  • 收稿日期:2024-01-12 修回日期:2024-11-21 出版日期:2025-02-20 发布日期:2025-02-18
  • 通讯作者:
    张令振，男，1978年出生，安徽萧县人，高级工程师，本科，研究方向：气象服务。通信地址：810016 青海省西宁市城北生物园区经二路20-2号 西宁市气象局，Tel：0971-6123586，E-mail：。
  • 作者简介:

    李昌玉，女，1972年出生，青海平安人，高级工程师，本科，研究方向：应用气象。通信地址：810016 青海省西宁市城北生物园区经二路20-2号 西宁市气象局，Tel：0971-6123586，E-mail：。

  • 基金资助:
    青海省气象局预报员专项基金2015西宁市大到暴雪分析及对设施温棚的致灾指标研究(QXYBZX201503)

Research on Early Warning Level of Snow Disaster in Solar Greenhouse Based on Disaster Damage

LI Changyu(), ZHANG Lingzhen(), ZHANG Tinghua, PENGMAO Qingcuo, LI Jun, CHEN Dongwei, LI Shubin   

  1. Xining Meteorological Bureau, Xining 810016
  • Received:2024-01-12 Revised:2024-11-21 Online:2025-02-20 Published:2025-02-18

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摘要：

为了满足现代农业发展的精细化服务需求，建立日光温室雪灾预警，指导农户提前采取有效措施，做好灾前防御，减少或避免雪灾造成的经济损失。本研究采用极值概率分布模型对青海省河湟谷地13个县区1978—2021年最大积雪深度观测资料进行分析，计算了30 a重现期日光温室坡度角为30°、35°和40°的最大雪压，得到日光温室雪灾临界指标。在此基础上选取1985—2021年河湟谷地日光温室实际雪灾资料、积雪深度资料，以各雪灾年造成的日光温室损失率作为因子，依据计算标准化降水指数不同等级灾害占总灾害比例的方法，确定日光温室雪灾不同强度等级的阈值，再根据积雪深度和温室损失率的函数关系，构建基于日光温室损失率的雪灾预警指标，将日光温室雪灾预警等级分为轻度、中度、重度三级。此方法对日光温室雪灾指标划分提出新的思路和方法，不仅简单，而且具有地域普适性，便于气象服务业务应用。

关键词: 现代农业, 精细化服务, 日光温室, 雪灾, 损失率, 预警等级, 极值概率分布模型, 标准化降水指数

Abstract:

In order to satisfy the refined service requirements of modern agriculture, this study established a snow disaster warning system of solar greenhouses, which could guide farmers to take effective measures to reduce or avoid economic losses that caused by snow disasters. The extreme probability distribution model was used to analyze the maximum snow depth data of 13 counties in Hehuang Valley of Qinghai Province from 1978 to 2021, and calculated the maximum snow pressure of the solar greenhouse with 30°, 35°and 40° slope angles during the 30-year return period, and then the snow disaster critical index of the solar greenhouse was obtained. It was selected the actual snow disaster data, the snow depth data of solar greenhouse, and the loss rate caused by the snow disaster year as a factor in Hehuang Valley from 1985 to 2021 based on the previous foundation. According to the method of calculating the standardized precipitation index to the proportion of different levels disasters in the total disaster, the threshold values of different levels of snow disasters of solar greenhouse were determined, and then the snow disaster warning indicator system was established based on the solar greenhouse loss rate according to the relationship between snow depth and greenhouse loss rate. It was classified the warning levels of solar greenhouse snow disasters into three levels: mild, moderate, and severe. This new method puts forward new ideas for the division of snow disaster indicators in solar greenhouses. It is not only simple, but also has regional universality and is convenient for meteorological service business applications.

Key words: modern agriculture, refined service, solar greenhouse, snow disaster, loss rate, early warning level, extreme probability distribution model, standardized precipitation index