Journal of Agriculture ›› 2013, Vol. 3 ›› Issue (4): 9-12.
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Abstract: Abstract: In order to reveal the epidemic trajectory of liberobacter asiaticum in different management style, we established epidemic diffusion model of liberobacter asiaticum by the dynamic inspection of onset and dispersion in Huangyan District from 2002 to 2012, with the help of the diseased plants incidence data which processed by Excel 2003 and SPSS software. The results show that, The epidemic diffusion model of natural conditions without artificial control: y1=12.24x-1.3828(n=9,r=0.98**) , General Prevention and control: y 2= 5.4498x – 1.6035(n=11,r2=0.9505**), The integrated control diffusion model: y3=0.379x-0.373(n=11,r2=0.982**). In natural conditions without artificial control, the annual average diseased-plant rate is11.11% and it takes 9 years from the onset to complete destruction . Under the conditions of general prevention and control methods, it needs 18 years, and the annual average diseased - plant rate of 4.69%, compared to the epidemic prevention and control of natural diffusion effect is good 57.79% .Basis of the integrated control diffusion model ,if the cumulative infection rate up to 10%,it at least go through 27 years, and the annual average diseased - plant rate of 0.31%, compared to the epidemic prevention and control of natural diffusion effect is good 97.21%.Whereby,do a good job of comprehensive prevention and control, the liberobacter asiaticum can prevention and control and the citrus industry will not disappear because of liberobacter asiaticum,so that all levels of government and the majority of growers have confidence in about the epidemic prevention and control.
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