Welcome to Journal of Agriculture,

Journal of Agriculture ›› 2016, Vol. 6 ›› Issue (6): 78-116.doi: 10.11923/j.issn.2095-4050.casb15110149

Special Issue: 现代农业发展与乡村振兴 农业气象

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Grain Security and Economic Growth in China Adapting to Climate Change: Based on Multi-Regional General Equilibrium Model

  

  • Received:2015-11-28 Revised:2015-11-28 Accepted:2016-06-03 Online:2016-06-21 Published:2016-06-21

Abstract: This paper studies the adaptation to Climate Change, Grain Food Security, and Economic Growth in China. with a static Multi-Regional Computable General Equilibrium (MGCGE) model, we conduct policy simulations for 31 Chinese provinces and autonomous districts on the basis of grain yield projections under the A2 (high emissions) and B2 (medium-low emissions) climate change scenarios. Our results show that, under both climate change scenarios, maize, wheat, and rice production will grow significantly. consumption demand of Livestock, industry, seed and Household will grow significantly. As production increases, exports of the three grains will increase, and imports decrease. Most provinces will experience growth in real GDP, real investments, and net exports. The main conclusions of our study are as follows. 1) Climate change will boost China’s grain production, strengthening economic growth. 2) Grain production growth resulting from climate change exhibit considerable regional variations; Poductionwill grow faster in major grain production provinces, such as the three Northwest provinces, than in the rest of the nation. 3) Productiongrowth differs in magnitude under different climate change scenarios. 4) In light of the uncertainty in many socio-economic and environmental factors, grain food security should continue to be watched closely by China’s policy makers.