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Journal of Agriculture ›› 2016, Vol. 6 ›› Issue (11): 85-89.doi: 10.11923/j.issn.2095-4050.cjas16060015

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Prediction of Grain Demand in Fujian Province

  

  • Received:2016-06-20 Revised:2016-10-10 Accepted:2016-10-17 Online:2016-11-25 Published:2016-11-25

Abstract: To realize the maximum utilization of limited resources and provide new supporting data for food security in Fujian Province, the author analyzed grain consumption characteristics from 2003 to 2012 and predicted grain demand for the next several years. The results showed that, firstly, the total grain consumption in Fujian Province showed an increasing trend, and the consumption structure had a large variation. Secondly, grain consumption per capita increased 44 kg, ration consumption per capita decreased 12 kg, feed grain consumption per capita increased 55 kg. Substantial increase of feed grain was the main reason leading to the substantial growth of grain consumption per capita in Fujian Province. Thirdly, comparison of the grain consumption per capita at different economic levels and under reasonable dietary patterns showed that there were obvious differences. The actual consumption was higher than the theoretical values. Irrational grain consumption led to grain waste. Fourthly, according to the prediction of grain demand per capita at high, middle and low levels, prediction of grain demand based on reasonable dietary patterns could reflect the actual grain demand, and the grain demand was 12.22 million tons in 2020 and 12.43 million tons in 2025.