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农学学报

农学学报 ›› 2024, Vol. 14 ›› Issue (12): 78-84.doi: 10.11923/j.issn.2095-4050.cjas2023-0258

• 农业信息 农业气象 • 上一篇    下一篇

基于SPEI的伊犁河谷高海拔地区牧草生长季干旱特征分析

吾米提·居马太1,2(), 沈伟3, 郭燕云4, 伊里亚尔·叶克木江1, 美丽侃·克尔买买提1, 叶尔布兰·努尔达吾列提5, 马玉平1()   

  1. 1 伊犁州气象局，新疆伊宁 835000
    2 成都信息工程大学大气科学学院，成都 610225
    3 宿迁市气象局，江苏宿迁 223800
    4 新疆兴农网信息中心/新疆维吾尔自治区农业气象台，乌鲁木齐 830002
    5 伊宁市气象局，新疆伊宁 835000
  • 收稿日期:2023-11-28 修回日期:2024-06-24 出版日期:2024-12-20 发布日期:2024-12-20
  • 通讯作者:
    马玉平，男，1970年出生，新疆克拉玛依人，高级工程师，本科，主要从事应用气象服务方面的工作。通信地址：835000 新疆伊犁伊宁市飞机场路260号，E-mail：。
  • 作者简介:

    吾米提·居马太，女，1990年出生，新疆伊宁人，工程师，研究生在读，主要从事应用气象方面的研究。通信地址：835000 新疆伊犁伊宁市飞机场路260号，E-mail：。

  • 基金资助:
    新疆气象局引导性计划项目“基于草地生态模型的新疆天山山区牧草产量动态预报技术及业务应用研究”(YD202211); 新疆维吾尔自治区区域协同创新专项（上海合作组织科技伙伴计划及国际科技合作计划）项目“天山草地生态系统生产力监测与模拟研究及潜在风险评估”(2023E01006); 江苏省气象局面上课题项目(KM202416); 新疆“三农”骨干人才培养项目(2022SNGGNT003)

Analysis of Drought Characteristics During Growing Season of Alpine Grasslands in High-altitude Areas of Ili River Valley Based on SPEI

WUMITI·Jumatai1,2(), SHEN Wei3, GUO Yanyun4, YILIYAER·Yekemujiang1, MEILIKAN·Kermaimaiti1, YEERBULAN·Nuerdawulieti5, MA Yuping1()   

  1. 1 Ili Meteorological Bureau, Yining 835000, Xinjiang, China
    2 College of Atmospheric Sciences, Chengdu University of Information Technology, Chengdu 610225, Sichuan, China
    3 Suqian Meteorological Bureau, Suqian 223800, Jiangsu, China
    4 Information Centre of Xinjiang Xingnong-Net/ Xinjiang Agro-meteorological Observatory, Urumqi 830002 Xinjiang, China
    5 Yining Meteorological Bureau, Yining 835000, Xinjiang, China
  • Received:2023-11-28 Revised:2024-06-24 Online:2024-12-20 Published:2024-12-20

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摘要：

本研究利用伊犁河谷昭苏县气象站点1956—2022年逐月气温、降水数据及牧草生育期数据，通过标准化降水蒸散指数(SPEI)、回归分析、Mann-Kendall检验等方法，对伊犁河谷高海拔地区牧草生长季（4—8月）干旱变化特征进行了分析。结果表明：1956—2022年昭苏县年平均气温为3.5℃，以0.3℃/10 a的倾向率极显著上升，年降水量为509.3 mm，总体呈现年际差明显，呈不显著的增加趋势。昭苏县牧草全生育期的干旱频率为16.4%，其中重旱发生的概率均为7.5%；返青期、分蘖期、抽穗期、开花期中旱以上的干旱频率分别为13.4%、16.4%、22.3%、22.4%，返青期呈现不显著的干旱化趋势，分蘖期、抽穗期和开花期呈现显著性干旱化趋势。研究结果以期为昭苏县牧草干旱灾害的监测、预警及风险防御提供科学理论依据。

关键词: 昭苏县, 牧草, 干旱, 标准化降水蒸散指数SPEI, 高海拔地区, 干旱频率, 干旱变化, Mann-Kendall检验

Abstract:

Using monthly temperature and precipitation data from Zhaosu County meteorological station in the Ili River Valley from 1956 to 2022, as well as data on the growth period of grasslands, the standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index (SPEI), regression analysis, Mann-Kendall test, and other methods were adopted to analyze the drought variation characteristics during the growing season (April to August) of alpine grasslands in the high-altitude areas of the Ili River Valley. The results showed that the annual average temperature in Zhaosu County from 1956 to 2022 was 3.5°C, with a significant upward trend of 0.3°C/10 years. The annual precipitation was 509.3 mm, showing significant interannual variability but no significant increasing trend. The drought frequency during the entire growth period of grasslands in Zhaosu County was 16.4%, with a probability of severe drought occurrence at 7.5%. The drought frequencies during the greening, tillering, heading, and flowering stages were 13.4%, 16.4%, 22.3%, and 22.4% respectively. The greening stage showed no significant drought trend, while the tillering, heading, and flowering stages exhibited significant drought trends. The results are expected to provide a scientific theoretical basis for monitoring, early warning, and defense against grassland drought disasters in Zhaosu County.

Key words: Zhaosu County, grassland, drought, SPEI, high-altitude areas, drought frequency, drought changes, Mann-Kendall Test