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农学学报

农学学报 ›› 2022, Vol. 12 ›› Issue (12): 56-62.doi: 10.11923/j.issn.2095-4050.cjas2021-0134

所属专题： 农业气象； 农业生态

• 农业信息/农业气象 • 上一篇    下一篇

基于SPEI的河北省南部棉花生长季干旱特征分析

赵玉兵1(), 张杰1, 刘连涛2, 孙东磊1()   

  1. 1河北省邢台市气象局，河北邢台 054000
    2河北农业大学农学院，河北保定 071000
  • 收稿日期:2021-07-29 修回日期:2021-11-05 出版日期:2022-12-20 发布日期:2023-01-05
  • 通讯作者: 孙东磊 E-mail:13930945777@126.com;xtsdl@126.com
  • 作者简介:赵玉兵，女，1981年出生，河北清河人，工程师，硕士，主要从事农业气象服务工作。通信地址：054000 河北省邢台市信都区守敬北路76号 邢台市气象局，E-mail：13930945777@126.com。
  • 基金资助:
    国家自然科学基金面上项目“微根系（细根、根毛）形态和生理特征对棉花早衰的影响和机制”(318715690)

Analysis of Drought Characteristics During Cotton Growing Season in Southern Hebei Province Based on SPEI

ZHAO Yubing1(), ZHANG Jie1, LIU Liantao2, SUN Donglei1()   

  1. 1Xingtai Meteorological Administration, Xingtai 054000, Hebei, China
    2College of Agronomy, Hebei Agricultural University, Baoding 071000, Hebei, China
  • Received:2021-07-29 Revised:2021-11-05 Online:2022-12-20 Published:2023-01-05
  • Contact: SUN Donglei E-mail:13930945777@126.com;xtsdl@126.com

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摘要：

旨在为棉花干旱灾害的监测、预报预警及防御提供理论依据。利用河北省南部8个气象站点1962—2020年的逐月气温、降水量数据，采用标准化降水蒸散指数(SPEI)，通过回归分析、Mann-Kendall检验等方法，分析了河北省南部棉花生长季（4—10月）干旱变化特征。结果表明，河北南部棉花全生育期的干旱频率为25%，其中重旱以上发生频率为6.8%;播种期、苗期、蕾期、花铃期和吐絮期干旱频率分别为35.6%、30.5%、32.2%、30.5%和32.2%;苗期气候在1976年发生干湿变化突变，1976年后呈显著湿润化趋势;蕾期气候在1968年发生干湿突变，1968年后呈显著湿润化趋势;棉花花铃期气候1982年后呈干旱化趋势，变化趋势越来越显著;棉花吐絮期气候1989年后呈干旱化趋势;棉花全生育期气候1982年后呈现持续干旱化趋势。20世纪90年代以来，棉花苗期、蕾期气候呈湿润化趋势，花铃期呈干旱化趋势，作物品种培育和栽培技术措施改进应重视这种变化趋势。

关键词: 棉花, 河北省, 生长季, SPEI指数, 干旱特征

Abstract:

The purpose of the research is to provide a theoretical basis for monitoring, forecasting, early warning and preventing of cotton drought disasters. Based on the monthly temperature and precipitation data at eight meteorological stations in southern Hebei Province from 1962 to 2020, the standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index (SPEI), regression analysis and Mann-Kendall test were used to analyze the drought variation characteristics of cotton growing season (from April to October). The results showed that the drought frequency in the whole growth period of cotton was 25% in southern Hebei, and the frequency of above severe drought was 6.8%. The drought frequency of seeding stage, seedling stage, bud stage, flowering and boll-forming stage, and boll opening stage was 35.6%, 30.5%, 32.2%, 30.5% and 32.2%, respectively. The climate of seedling stage changed abruptly from dry to wet in 1976 and showed a clear trend of wetting after 1976. The climate of bud stage changed abruptly from dry to wet in 1968, and became moist after 1968. The climate of cotton flowering and boll-forming stage showed a drought trend after 1982, and the trend was more and more obvious. The climate of cotton boll opening stage showed a drought trend after 1989. The climate during the whole growth period of cotton showed a drought trend after 1982. Since the 1990s, the climate of cotton seedling stage and bud stage showed humidified trend, while the climate of cotton flowering and boll-forming stage showed arid trend. These trends should be highlighted in variety breeding and cultivation technique improvement.

Key words: cotton, Hebei Province, growing season, SPEI index, drought characteristics

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