Abstract:

The paper aims to analyze the potential suitable distribution area of the invasive species Flaveria bidentis in China. Based on the maximum entropy model (MaxEnt) and ArcGIS software, we predicted the potential suitable distribution area of Flaveria bidentis in China in current and future climate conditions. The results showed that: in the current climate conditions, Flaveria bidentis was mainly distributed in most parts of Hebei, southern Beijing, northern Henan and western Tianjin; in the future climate conditions, the suitable distribution range of Flaveria bidentis would be further expanded; around 2060, the area of the high-adapted area of Flaveria bidentis would increase to 147300 km ² with a growth rate of 121.49%, mainly distributed in Hebei and surrounding areas, Xi’an in Shaanxi and surrounding cities. The Jackknife method was used to calculate the influence of each environmental variable on the species distribution, the main factors affected the distribution of Flaveria bidentis were the minimum temperature of coldest month, the mean temperature of coldest season, annual mean temperature, the mean temperature of driest season, standard deviation of seasonal altitude and temperature changes, the mean temperature of wettest season and the mean temperature of warmest season. The AUC of the model was 0.987, indicating the accuracy of the model was very high. The distribution of Flaveria bidentis in the future climate change scenario will be further expanded, the relevant departments should pay close attention and take protective measures as soon as possible.

Key words: Invasive Plant, Flaveria bidentis (L.) Kuntze., Climatic Change, MaxEnt, Potential Suitable Area