Abstract:

To clarify the interannual dynamics and driving factors of tobacco planting area in Sichuan Province, the planting area and yield of tobacco and flue-cured tobacco in Sichuan from 1999 to 2018 were statistically analyzed. Three macroeconomic indicators, including per capita GDP, added value of the primary industry and tax revenue, and five farmland land use indicators, including grain, oil, cotton, bast fiber and sugar crop planting area, were selected to construct the index system that significantly affect tobacco planting area. The results showed that: (1) from 1999 to 2018, the planting area and yield of tobacco in Sichuan increased at first and then decreased; (2) from 1999 to 2018, the proportion of planting area of flue-cured tobacco increased, while that of air-cured tobacco decreased year by year; (3) from 1999 to 2005, the yield of tobacco leaf per unit area in Sichuan increased continuously, and then maintained above the level of 2 t/hm²; (4) the planting area of tobacco was positively correlated with the added value of primary industry and tax revenue, and had a negative correlation with cotton planting area and sugar crop planting area; (5) the regression equation with the lowest AIC in the range of significant difference was obtained by using stepwise regression analysis: S_{tobacco sown area}= -564.100+ 0.005×GDP _{per capita} + 0.169×S_{total sown area of crops}- 0.129×S_{grain sown area} + 0.164×S_{oil sown area}+ 5.166×S_{bast fiber crops sown area}- 4.469×S_{sugar sown area}- 0.178×S_{vegetable sown area}- 0.616×S_{tea garden area}- 0.323×S_{orchard area}. The results suggest that the tobacco planting area in Sichuan will be affected by economic development, crop planting structure and other factors.

Key words: Sichuan, Tobacco, Interannual Dynamics, Flue-cured Tobacco, Stepwise Regression Analysis