Abstract:

Based on the meteorological data during the growing season of Laiwu ginger from 2009 to 2018, and combined with the index of ginger developing period, a daily temperature suitability model was established by using the fuzzy mathematics method, and the characteristics of temperature suitability in different growth periods of ginger and its response to climate change were quantitatively analyzed and evaluated. The results showed that the temperature suitability of Laiwu ginger in the growing season was relatively high, with an average of 0.72, which exceeded 0.7 except from sowing to seedling stage. The ginger temperature suitability was: harvesting period>young sprout period>exuberant growing period>sowing to germination period. Temperature suitability fluctuated greatly from sowing to germination period. Temperature was the main meteorological factor affecting the timely sowing of ginger. From 2009 to 2018, the temperature suitability of Laiwu ginger changed obviously, showing an increasing trend from sowing period, seedling period to young sprout period, and vigorous growth period, which reduced the risk of low temperature and high temperature. Under the background of global warming, the temperature suitability of ginger in Laiwu presents a linear increase during the growing season, and temperature has a positive effect on the growth and development of ginger. Based on mathematical statistical methods, three kinds of evaluation indexes (not suitable, suitable, and very suitable) for the temperature suitability of ginger in different development stages are determined.

Key words: Ginger, Fuzzy Mathematics, Suitability Model, Temperature Suitability, Evaluation Index