Study on the Variation of Frost Characteristics and the Intensity of Disaster-causing Risk in Northwestern Liaoning

doi:10.11923/j.issn.2095-4050.cjas2022-0104

Abstract

Abstract:

Frost events are among the most severe meteorological extreme events associated with agriculture. The study on frost variation trend and intensity is conducive to improving people's understanding of frost and has certain reference value for agricultural structure adjustment. Using meteorological data and phenology data of crop seedling stage and fruit tree flowering and ripening stage from 1951 to 2020 in Chaoyang and Fuxin of Liaoning Province, the authors applied climate diagnostic analysis methods to analyze frost occurrence time and frequency, and study the intensity of disaster-causing risk of frost in northwestern Liaoning. The results showed that the disaster intensity of spring frost after May 1 was >80%, the risk intensity of the last frost was 41.6% on average, and the probability of severe disaster (70%<ST≤100%) was 20.0%. Because the last frost date was earlier by -0.438 d/10 a, the spring frost disaster risk intensity linearly decreased by 9.4 percentage points, while the spring frost disaster risk intensity decreased on average by 5.2 percentage points from 2001 to 2020. Before September 15, the disaster intensity of autumn frost was greater than 80%, the average risk intensity of the first frost was 27.7%, and the probability of severe disaster (70%<ST≤100%) was 5.7%. Because the first frost date was delayed by 1.734 d/10 a, the disaster risk intensity decreased linearly by 34.0 percentage points, while the frost disaster risk intensity in autumn of 2001 to 2020 decreased by an average of 24.9 percentage points. The annual frost disaster risk intensity decreased linearly by 25.6 percentage points; from 2001 to 2020, it decreased by 17.1 percentage points. The results indicate that under the influence of climate warming, the annual frost disaster risk intensity in northwestern Liaoning has been generally weakened, while the advance trend of the last frost date is unstable, and it is necessary to be cautious in adjusting the planting date of crops. From 1991 to 2020, the first frost disaster risk intensity decreased obviously, so there is room for development and utilization of heat resources in autumn.

Key words: frost, disaster-causing risk, intensity, northwestern Liaoning.

WANG Yi, WANG Ding. Study on the Variation of Frost Characteristics and the Intensity of Disaster-causing Risk in Northwestern Liaoning[J]. Journal of Agriculture, 2023, 13(8): 94-100.

Figures/Tables 5

References 29

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