Spatial and Temporal Distribution of Agrometeorological Disasters in Zibo and Its Impacts on Grain Yield

doi:10.11923/j.issn.2095-4050.cjas2023-0018

Abstract

Abstract:

To reveal the risk of agrometeorological disasters in Zibo City and ensure food safety production, based on the agrometeorological disaster data and grain yield data of Zibo from 1983 to 2020, the temporal and spatial distribution of main agrometeorological disasters in Zibo, the development trend of disasters and the correlation degree of grain yield were analyzed by using the methods of trend analysis, grey correlation method and Hurst index. The results showed that: (1) the agrometeorological disasters occurred frequently in Zibo. The order of occurrence frequency was drought, gale, hail, flood, typhoon and freezing disaster. The proportion of disasters varied greatly from year to year. (2) The disaster rate of the four types of meteorological disasters showed a downward trend, with uneven spatial distribution: drought disaster was most serious in Gaoqing and Yiyuan; flood disaster was most serious in Gaoqing; gale disaster was most serious in Huantai and Zhoucun; hail disaster in Gaoqing was the most serious. (3) The future change trend of disaster rate was anti sustainable upward. The correlation analysis with grain output showed that drought was the most closely related, followed by gale, flood disasters. In the future, the risk of agricultural meteorological disasters in Zibo City will be severe, the main meteorological disaster affecting grain production is drought, and prevention and control should be strengthened.

Key words: Zibo area, grain yield, meteorological disasters, disaster rate, grey correlation method

LIU Yan, HUAN Haijun. Spatial and Temporal Distribution of Agrometeorological Disasters in Zibo and Its Impacts on Grain Yield[J]. Journal of Agriculture, 2023, 13(9): 81-87.

Figures/Tables 6

References 25

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年份	关联度
年份	干旱	暴雨洪涝	冰雹	大风
1983—1989	0.911	0.891	0.777	0.779
1990—1999	0.848	0.805	0.808	0.806
2000—2009	0.805	0.764	0.690	0.837
2010—2020	0.917	0.774	0.762	0.796
1983—2020	0.853	0.802	0.761	0.808

年份	关联度
年份	干旱	暴雨洪涝	冰雹	大风
1983—1989	0.911	0.891	0.777	0.779
1990—1999	0.848	0.805	0.808	0.806
2000—2009	0.805	0.764	0.690	0.837
2010—2020	0.917	0.774	0.762	0.796
1983—2020	0.853	0.802	0.761	0.808