Welcome to Journal of Agriculture,

Journal of Agriculture ›› 2021, Vol. 11 ›› Issue (5): 57-61.doi: 10.11923/j.issn.2095-4050.cjas2020-0216

Special Issue: 烟草种植与生产

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Interannual Dynamics of Tobacco Planting Area in Sichuan Province from 1999 to 2018

Bian Jianfeng1(), Yan Fangfang2, Chen Guantao3, Liu Yang1, Feng Wenlong2, Luo Wanlin1, Wang Xie3()   

  1. 1China Tobacco Corporation, Sichuan Branch, Chengdu 610000, Sichuan, China
    2Sichuan Tobacco Corporation, Panzhihua Branch, Panzhihua 617000, Sichuan, China
    3Institute of Soil and Fertilizer, Sichuan Academy of Agricultural Sciences/ Key Laboratory of Southwest Mountain Environment, Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, Chengdu 610066, Sichuan, China
  • Received:2020-10-12 Revised:2021-01-13 Online:2021-05-20 Published:2021-06-29
  • Contact: Wang Xie E-mail:275411178@qq.com;wangxiechangde@hotmail.com

Abstract:

To clarify the interannual dynamics and driving factors of tobacco planting area in Sichuan Province, the planting area and yield of tobacco and flue-cured tobacco in Sichuan from 1999 to 2018 were statistically analyzed. Three macroeconomic indicators, including per capita GDP, added value of the primary industry and tax revenue, and five farmland land use indicators, including grain, oil, cotton, bast fiber and sugar crop planting area, were selected to construct the index system that significantly affect tobacco planting area. The results showed that: (1) from 1999 to 2018, the planting area and yield of tobacco in Sichuan increased at first and then decreased; (2) from 1999 to 2018, the proportion of planting area of flue-cured tobacco increased, while that of air-cured tobacco decreased year by year; (3) from 1999 to 2005, the yield of tobacco leaf per unit area in Sichuan increased continuously, and then maintained above the level of 2 t/hm2; (4) the planting area of tobacco was positively correlated with the added value of primary industry and tax revenue, and had a negative correlation with cotton planting area and sugar crop planting area; (5) the regression equation with the lowest AIC in the range of significant difference was obtained by using stepwise regression analysis: Stobacco sown area= -564.100+ 0.005×GDP per capita + 0.169×Stotal sown area of crops- 0.129×Sgrain sown area + 0.164×Soil sown area+ 5.166×Sbast fiber crops sown area- 4.469×Ssugar sown area- 0.178×Svegetable sown area- 0.616×Stea garden area- 0.323×Sorchard area. The results suggest that the tobacco planting area in Sichuan will be affected by economic development, crop planting structure and other factors.

Key words: Sichuan, Tobacco, Interannual Dynamics, Flue-cured Tobacco, Stepwise Regression Analysis

CLC Number: