Abstract:

Based on the classical IPCC carbon emission calculation theory, the agricultural carbon emissions were calculated in Yunnan Province from 2005 to 2021, considering agricultural material input, soil nitrogen emissions, rice cultivation and livestock and poultry breeding. The influence factor decomposition was analyzed based on Logarithmic Mean Divisia Index. Results showed that: (1) the total agricultural carbon emissions in Yunnan Province tended to increase from 2005 to 2021, showing a relatively obvious three-stage change characteristic of “fluctuating decrease-continuous increase-fluctuating decrease”. The carbon emissions in 2021 increased by 22.38% compared to 2005, with an average annual growth rate of 1.27%. (2) In 2021, the source structure of agricultural carbon emissions ranked as livestock and poultry breeding, agricultural material input and crop farming, average accounting for 73.19%, 14.42% and 12.39% respectively. (3) The LMDI decomposition results showed that agricultural production efficiency, agricultural economic development level and urbanization were emission growth factors, while agricultural industrial structure, employment structure and rural population were emission reduction factors. Therefore, it is recommended to firmly promote the rapid development of urbanization, optimize the agricultural industry structure and employment structure, develop standardized scale breeding of livestock and poultry, and promote the modernization of agriculture and rural development.

Key words: agricultural CO₂ emission, driving factor, Yunnan Province, LMDI decomposition, regional differences, livestock and poultry breeding, agricultural industrial structure