Abstract:

In this study, taking Rhamnus utilis as the research object, a MaxEnt distribution model was constructed based on 2057 global record points using current climate data from CHELSA and three development scenario data from GFDL-ESM4. The results showed that the precipitation in the warmest season, seasonal changes in temperature, and monthly mean diurnal temperature difference were the dominant factors affecting the distribution of R. utilis. The AUC of the MaxEnt model reached 0.987, indicating a good fit of the model. R. utilis has a high probability of distribution throughout Shanxi Province, with a higher probability in the central and southern regions. Future scenario predictions indicate that the distribution area of R. utilis. will expand towards the northeast direction, with a movement speed of approximately 492 to 975 m/year, but there may be non optimal habitats in the Yuncheng Basin. This study explores the dominant climatic factors that limit R. utilisand simulates their potential suitable distribution areas, which can provide theoretical basis for the breeding, development and utilization of R. utilis.

Key words: Rhamnus utilis, MaxEnt model, distribution, prediction, climate factor, climate change, Shanxi