Climate Warming Impacts and Adaptive Strategies for Agricultural Production in Heze City Under Context of Yellow River Basin Ecological Protection

doi:10.11923/j.issn.2095-4050.cjas2025-0163

Abstract

Abstract:

This study investigates the impact of climate warming on agricultural production in Heze City under the context of ecological protection in the Yellow River Basin, and proposes countermeasures. It aims to provide a scientific basis for the government to guide agricultural production and respond to climate warming, thereby achieving sustainable economic and social development. Utilizing daily temperature observation data of national basic meteorological stations in Heze City from 1971 to 2022, and the grain yield data provided by the Heze Municipal Bureau of Statistics, this research employed methods such as the linear regression equation method, correlation coefficient method, M-K test and abrupt change analysis, and Morlet wavelet periodicity analysis to study the spatiotemporal distribution characteristics of temperature in Heze City. It analyzed the impact of climate warming on agriculture against the backdrop of ecological protection in the Yellow River Basin and proposed strategies and response measures. The results indicate that: (1) the annual average temperature in Heze City decreases from south to north; from 1971 to 2022, the temperature in Heze City showed a significant increasing trend, rising at a rate of 0.4°C/10a; the extreme maximum temperature and extreme minimum temperature in Heze City both showed an increasing trend, with climate tendency rates of 0.48°C/10a and 0.44°C/10a, respectively; the monthly temperature trends across the 9 stations in Heze City over the years were relatively consistent, showing an inverted V-shape; The annual average temperature in Heze City shows a significant warming trend, the intersection point occurred in 2006, confirming an abrupt change that began in that year; when the temperature guarantee rate was the same, the annual average temperature in the counties of Heze City increased from north to south; the annual average temperature in Heze City mainly exhibits periodic variation patterns on time scales of 13-22 years and 4-10 years, with significant cyclical changes. (2) Climate warming has led to an increase in thermal conditions for agricultural production, significantly reducing the probability of low-temperature cold damage to crops; influenced by climate warming, agricultural meteorological disasters frequently occur in Heze City, losses from droughts and floods have intensified, and agricultural yield fluctuations have increased; climate warming has caused changes in the growth periods of crops, but grain yield continues to show an upward trend; climate warming leads to an increase in the occurrence of crop diseases and insect pests, resulting in a rise in the application of pesticides and chemical fertilizers, which in turn drives up agricultural costs. (3) To better respond to and adapt to future climate warming, several countermeasures and suggestions are proposed to address the impact of climate warming on agriculture in Heze City, providing a scientific basis for agricultural adaptation to climate warming and meteorological disaster prevention and reduction in Heze City.

Key words: Heze City, climate warming, agricultural production, impact, adaptive strategies

CHEN Nan, GAO Hongxuan, FAN Xianzheng, FAN Jie. Climate Warming Impacts and Adaptive Strategies for Agricultural Production in Heze City Under Context of Yellow River Basin Ecological Protection[J]. Journal of Agriculture, 2026, 16(2): 98-108.

Figures/Tables 11

References 31

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序号	年份	平均气温	序号	年份	平均气温	序号	年份	平均气温
1	1971	13.5	19	1989	13.8	36	2006	14.9
2	1972	13.2	20	1990	14.0	37	2007	14.7
3	1973	13.7	21	1991	13.4	38	2008	14.2
4	1974	13.5	22	1992	13.5	39	2009	14.3
5	1975	14.0	23	1993	13.6	40	2010	14.3
6	1976	13.2	24	1994	14.5	41	2011	13.9
7	1977	14.0	25	1995	13.9	42	2012	14.3
8	1978	14.2	26	1996	13.6	43	2013	14.9
9	1979	13.7	27	1997	14.2	44	2014	15.1
10	1980	13.3	28	1998	14.8	45	2015	14.8
11	1981	13.7	29	1999	14.6	46	2016	15.3
12	1982	13.9	30	2000	14.2	47	2017	15.5
13	1983	14.0	31	2001	14.2	48	2018	15.5
14	1984	12.9	32	2002	14.8	49	2019	15.7
15	1985	13.1	33	2003	13.7	50	2020	15.6
16	1986	13.5	34	2004	14.5	51	2021	15.8
17	1987	13.9	35	2005	14.0	52	2022	16.0
18	1988	13.7

序号	年份	平均气温	序号	年份	平均气温	序号	年份	平均气温
1	1971	13.5	19	1989	13.8	36	2006	14.9
2	1972	13.2	20	1990	14.0	37	2007	14.7
3	1973	13.7	21	1991	13.4	38	2008	14.2
4	1974	13.5	22	1992	13.5	39	2009	14.3
5	1975	14.0	23	1993	13.6	40	2010	14.3
6	1976	13.2	24	1994	14.5	41	2011	13.9
7	1977	14.0	25	1995	13.9	42	2012	14.3
8	1978	14.2	26	1996	13.6	43	2013	14.9
9	1979	13.7	27	1997	14.2	44	2014	15.1
10	1980	13.3	28	1998	14.8	45	2015	14.8
11	1981	13.7	29	1999	14.6	46	2016	15.3
12	1982	13.9	30	2000	14.2	47	2017	15.5
13	1983	14.0	31	2001	14.2	48	2018	15.5
14	1984	12.9	32	2002	14.8	49	2019	15.7
15	1985	13.1	33	2003	13.7	50	2020	15.6
16	1986	13.5	34	2004	14.5	51	2021	15.8
17	1987	13.9	35	2005	14.0	52	2022	16.0
18	1988	13.7