欢迎访问《农学学报》，
农学学报

农学学报 ›› 2026, Vol. 16 ›› Issue (1): 65-75.doi: 10.11923/j.issn.2095-4050.cjas2024-0183

• 农业信息 农业气象 • 上一篇    下一篇

气候变化背景下宁夏基于资源禀赋利用的农业生产特征与适应研究——以玉米为例

董宛麟1(), 赵慧2, 李秋月3, 胡琦4   

  1. 1 中国气象局气象干部培训学院，北京 100081
    2 中国气象局旱区特色农业气象灾害监测预警与风险管理重点实验室，银川 750002
    3 北京市气候中心，北京 100089
    4 中国农业大学资源与环境学院，北京 100193
  • 收稿日期:2024-10-15 修回日期:2025-04-26 出版日期:2026-01-20 发布日期:2026-01-15
  • 作者简介:

    董宛麟，1986年出生，女，高级工程师，博士，研究方向：农业适应气象变化理论和技术。通信地址：100081 北京市海淀区中关村南大街46号院中国气象局北区32号楼，中国气象局气象干部教育培训学院，E-mail：。

  • 基金资助:
    中国气象局创新发展专项(CXFZ2024J051); 中国气象局政策研究气象软科学课题(2024MSXM16)

Study on Agricultural Production Characteristics and Adaptation Based on Resource Endowment Utilization Under Background of Climate Change in Ningxia - A Case Study of Maize

DONG Wanlin1(), ZHAO Hui2, LI Qiuyue3, HU Qi4   

  1. 1 China Meteorological Administration Training Centre, Beijing 100081
    2 Key Laboratory for Meteorological Disaster Monitoring and Early Warning and Risk Management of Characteristic Agriculture in Arid Regions, CMA, Yinchuan 750002
    3 Beijing Municipal Climate Center, Beijing 100089
    4 College of Resources and Environmental Sciences, China Agricultural University, Beijing 100193
  • Received:2024-10-15 Revised:2025-04-26 Online:2026-01-20 Published:2026-01-15

RichHTML

0

PDF (PC)

9

摘要：

为探索宁夏农业适应气候变化的高质量发展路径，基于文献分析法、数理统计法和多情景排放模拟等方法，研究分析宁夏资源禀赋利用特征。结果显示，宁夏地区气温呈显著升高趋势，总降水量呈减少趋势，干旱化趋势明显，光资源由北向南大体呈下降趋势。近20 a宁夏粮食作物播种面积呈极显著减小趋势，玉米播种面积增加57.0%，平均每10 a增加10.1万hm2。未来30 a在不同情景下，玉米播种—成熟天数由北向南逐渐增多，年代际间呈减小趋势，玉米产量分布总体呈南北低、中部高的特征。受气候变化影响，宁夏农业生产面临耕地与气候、水资源的耦合度不断下降，未来粮食生产压力将不断加大的问题。提出依据资源禀赋特点，调整宁夏作物种植产业布局，协同推进应对气候变化种植结构，以及推动建立农业科技创新整体效能提升体系，深入探索气候变化影响规律与适应机制等应对适应气候变化的建议，以期为宁夏地区农业高质量发展提供参考。

关键词: 气候变化, 粮食安全, 农业生产, 资源禀赋, 宁夏

Abstract:

In order to explore the high-quality development path of agriculture adapting to climate change in Ningxia Hui Autonomous Region, this paper analyzed the characteristics of resource endowment utilization based on methods such as literature analysis, mathematical statistics, and multi-scenario emission simulation, in Ningxia. The results showed that the air temperature presented a significant rising trend, the total precipitation presented a decreasing trend, the drought trend was obvious, and the light resources generally presented a decreasing trend from north to south, in Ningxia. Over the past 20 years, the sown area of grain crops in Ningxia had shown a highly significant decreasing trend. The sown area of maize had increased by 57.0%, with an average increase of 101000 hectares every 10 years. In the next 30 years, the number of days from sowing to ripening would gradually increase from north to south, and the interdecadal trend would be decreasing. Under the influence of climate change, agricultural production will face the declining coupling degree of arable land with climate and water resources, and the pressure of grain production will be increasing in the future, in Ningxia. On this basis, this study puts forward suggestions on how to adapt to climate change and promote high-quality development of agriculture, based on the characteristics of resource endowment. It proposed to adjust the crop planting industrial layout in Ningxia to promote the planting structure in response to climate change in a coordinated manner. And it is also proposed facilitating the establishment of an overall efficiency improvement system for agricultural scientific and technological innovation in-depth exploration of the impact laws and adaptation mechanisms of climate change, aiming to provide decision-making references for the high-quality development of agriculture in Ningxia and offer suggestions for building a strong agricultural country.

Key words: climate change, food security, agricultural production, resource endowment, Ningxia