Abstract:

Nanguo pear is a kind of Geographic Indications Product in Liaoning, and pear flower viewing is a tourism resource to be developed. Forecasting the flowering period is conducive to promoting the tourism industry. Based on the meteorological data of Anshan from 2000 to 2022 and the phenological data of the flowering period, we established a forecast model to screen related climate factors by using relevant analysis and stepwise regression methods. The results showed that the temperature in March was the main factor that affected the initial flowering period, followed by precipitation and light. Anshan Nanguo pear started to blossom in middle and late April. The flowering started in late April if the average temperature in the middle of March was less than 4.0℃, the average maximum temperature was less than 9.0℃, the average temperature from the middle of March to the first ten days of April was less than 6.0℃, and the average minimum temperature was less than 2.0℃. Without these conditions, the flowering started in the first ten days of April. The initial flowering period was advanced by 2-3 days when the temperature increased by 1℃. We selected six factors by stepwise regression, including the average temperature and the average maximum temperature in the middle of March, the average temperature, the average maximum temperature and the average minimum temperature from the middle of March to the first ten days of April, and the precipitation from the last ten days of March to the first ten days of April. The accuracy of the prediction model for the initial flowering period was 84.8%. It is feasible to predict the initial flowering period of Anshan Nanguo pear by using relevant indicators and stepwise regression model, and the method can be included in special meteorological forecast services.

Key words: Nanguo pear, flowering period, forecast model, Anshan