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Journal of Agriculture ›› 2021, Vol. 11 ›› Issue (9): 85-91.doi: 10.11923/j.issn.2095-4050.cjas2020-0184

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The Prediction Model of Seed Picking Initial Period of Oil Tree Peony

Zhang Cuiying1(), Lv Linghua2, Fan Xianzheng3, Li Ruiying1()   

  1. 1Heze Meteorological Bureau of Shandong Province, Heze 274000, Shandong, China
    2Heze Academy of Agricultural Sciences of Shandong Province, Heze 274000, Shandong, China
    3Zhaoyuan Meteorological Bureau of Shandong Province, Zhaoyuan 265400, Shandong, China
  • Received:2020-08-22 Revised:2020-11-03 Online:2021-09-20 Published:2021-09-30
  • Contact: Li Ruiying E-mail:hezezcy@126.com;lirycg@163.com


To explore the variation law of oil peony seed ripening and picking period affected by meteorological condition, based on the phenological observation data of oil tree peony from 2008 to 2019 and the meteorological elements such as temperature, light and precipitation during the growth period, Microsoft Office Excel 2013 and DPS statistical software were used to analyze the effects of meteorological conditions on the growth and seed maturity of oil tree peony by means of correlation analysis, regression analysis and moving average. The results showed that: the annual change trend of oil tree peony flowering period was basically the same as that of the beginning of seed picking, except some special climatic anomalies in some years; the meteorological factors that affecting the beginning of seed picking were temperature, including average temperature, accumulated temperature, maximum and minimum daily difference, and the correlation reached significant test. Light, humidity, precipitation and other meteorological factors had no significant correlation with the beginning of seed picking, but the influence of these meteorological factors on the growth of peony could not be ignored. Selecting the relevant significant meteorological factors and using regression method, the prediction model of oil peony seed picking initial period was established, and the seed picking beginning forecast was made and released on July 11 and July 21, respectively. The accuracy of the model was 100%, and the fitting and test results were ideal. The research results could provide scientific reference for flower growers to timely pick high-quality peony seeds.

Key words: Oil Tree Peony, Seed Picking, Initial Period, Forecast Model, Meteorological Condition, Influence, Change Law

CLC Number: