Abstract:

To study the risk characteristics of agricultural drought in southern Sichuan in nearly 30 years, based on the precipitation data of summer (June-August) in southern Sichuan (Neijiang, Zigong, Yibin, and Luzhou) from 1989 to 2019, the fuzzy membership function between the precipitation anomaly percentage and agricultural drought hazard levels was formed. By introducing interval average membership degree and combining information diffusion theory, we studied the risk characteristics of agricultural drought in southern Sichuan economic zone. The results showed that: the highest risk of light and moderate agricultural drought was in Luzhou, and the risk level was 21.47% and 15.32%, respectively; the highest level of severe agricultural drought risk was in Zigong with the risk level of 7.58%; the highest level of serious agricultural drought risk was in Yibin with a risk level of 7.47%.

Key words: Agricultural Drought Hazard, Southern Sichuan, Precipitation Anomaly, Information Diffusion, Fuzzy Mathematics, Hazard Level