Abstract:

To provide a basis for the forecast of blooming stage and the ecological impact assessment of climate change, based on the observation data of Prunus davidiana at blooming stage in the Summer Palace in Beijing from 1951 to 2004, we analyzed the interannual and inter-decadal change of the blooming period of Prunus davidiana and the influencing climate factors. The results showed that: the average blooming date of Prunus davidiana was March 26, and there was a significant advance trend among the years; the turning point of the blooming period of Prunus davidiana was in 1980s, with a significant advance trend (P<0.01) after 1980s, which was 6 days earlier during 1980s-2000s than that during 1950s-1970s; the average, latest and earliest blooming period of Prunus davidiana of 10 years were all significantly advanced, especially after 2000, 14 days, 14 days and 16 days earlier, respectively, compared with those of 1951-1990; the average air temperature from 1 January to the blooming period was the main factor affecting the blooming date of Prunus davidiana; the increase of average air temperature (in winter and spring) before blooming was the main climate factor which significantly promoted the blooming of Prunus davidiana after 1980s.

Key words: Prunus davidiana, Phenology, Blooming Stage, Temperature, Precipitation, Inter-decadal Variation, Climate Factor