Study on Drought Risk Degree of Crop Growth Season in Central Liaoning

doi:10.11923/j.issn.2095-4050.cjas2022-0162

Abstract

Abstract:

The study aims to grasp the precipitation change and drought risk degree of crop growth season in central Liaoning, and provide reference for the adjustment of agricultural industrial structure, the avoidance of drought risk and the management of agricultural production in the region. Using the precipitation and temperature data of Shenyang Regional Meteorological Center from 1961 to 2020, the author adopted the climate diagnostic analysis method, and chose integral humidity index and dry and wet index to study the satisfaction degree of precipitation to crop growth season, drought change characteristics and drought risk degree. The results showed that the precipitation in the growing season of crops in central Liaoning decreased from 1961 to 2020, with a linear decrease of 40.5 mm. Precipitation satisfaction degree and dry and wet index both showed a downward trend, with a linear decline of 14.5% and 0.13, respectively. The drought risk degree showed a significant upward trend, with the maximum drought risk degree increasing by 17.3%, and an average increase of 11.0 percentage points from 2000 to 2020. Medium drought and severe drought in sowing and seedling periods was about once every three years. Medium drought and severe drought in crop vigorous growth period was about once every 20 years, medium drought and severe drought occurred once every four years in crop mature period. The results can provide reference for understanding the change state of precipitation and drought change characteristics in central Liaoning, recognizing the severity of drought, and avoiding drought risks. The research can also be conducive to “agriculture, rural areas and farmers”, food security, agricultural structure adjustment, drought disaster prevention and mitigation.

Key words: crop growing season, precipitation, integral wet index, dry and wet index, drought risk degree

HAN Yanfeng. Study on Drought Risk Degree of Crop Growth Season in Central Liaoning[J]. Journal of Agriculture, 2023, 13(10): 77-82.

Figures/Tables 7

References 22

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指标	湿润	正常	轻旱	中旱	大旱
K值	K≥1.1	1.1>K≥0.9	0.9>K≥0.7	0.7>K≥0.5	K<0.5
F值	K≥0.9时，F=0		F<50%	70%>F≥50%	100%>F≥70%

指标	湿润	正常	轻旱	中旱	大旱
K值	K≥1.1	1.1>K≥0.9	0.9>K≥0.7	0.7>K≥0.5	K<0.5
F值	K≥0.9时，F=0		F<50%	70%>F≥50%	100%>F≥70%

月份	4月	5月	6月	7月	8月	9月	4—9月
平均值/mm	37.6	55.6	89.2	164.2	142.9	61.7	551.2
标准差/mm	22.1	29.1	34.9	72.1	83.9	31.9	128.0
最大值/(mm/年份)	90.4/2009	164.7/2016	161.8/1991	329.0/1991	423.7/1994	146.6/1986	888.3/1994
最小值/(mm/年份)	0.2/2014	10.5/1999	25.0/1982	54.6/1972	28.4/1991	0.6/2002	328.1/2000
极差/mm	90.2	154.2	136.8	274.4	395.3	146.0	560.1
倾向率/(mm/10 a)	0.209	4.022	1.729	-5.929	-1.433	-5.343	-6.746
序列相关(r)	0.017	0.242^*	0.087	0.144	0.030	0.293^*	0.092

月份	4月	5月	6月	7月	8月	9月	4—9月
平均值/mm	37.6	55.6	89.2	164.2	142.9	61.7	551.2
标准差/mm	22.1	29.1	34.9	72.1	83.9	31.9	128.0
最大值/(mm/年份)	90.4/2009	164.7/2016	161.8/1991	329.0/1991	423.7/1994	146.6/1986	888.3/1994
最小值/(mm/年份)	0.2/2014	10.5/1999	25.0/1982	54.6/1972	28.4/1991	0.6/2002	328.1/2000
极差/mm	90.2	154.2	136.8	274.4	395.3	146.0	560.1
倾向率/(mm/10 a)	0.209	4.022	1.729	-5.929	-1.433	-5.343	-6.746
序列相关(r)	0.017	0.242^*	0.087	0.144	0.030	0.293^*	0.092

月份	4月	5月	6月	7月	8月	9月	4—9月
平均	1.1	0.77	0.86	1.41	1.27	0.99	1.06
标准差	0.7	0.42	0.35	0.63	0.74	0.52	0.27
湿润	48.3	21.7	23.3	61.7	55.0	36.7	46.7
正常	11.7	11.7	25.0	15.0	5.0	8.3	25.0
轻旱	10.0	15.0	20.0	10.0	16.7	30.0	21.7
中旱	5.0	21.7	11.7	10.0	15.0	11.7	6.7
大旱	25.0	30.0	20.0	3.3	8.3	13.3	0.0
倾向率/(10 a)	-0.022	0.045	0.011	-0.053	-0.017	-0.095	-0.021
相关系数	-0.055	0.191	0.057	-0.146	-0.040	-0.318**	-0.139