Temporal and Spatial Distribution Characteristics of Climate Change and Meteorological Risk in Tobacco-Growing Areas of Hengyang in Recent 50 Years

doi:10.11923/j.issn.2095-4050.cjas2024-0134

Abstract

Abstract:

In order to understand the spatial and temporal distribution characteristics of climate change and meteorological disaster risk in tobacco-growing areas of Hengyang, based on the meteorological data from 1971 to 2020 in 5 counties and cities of Hengyang tobacco-growing area, the temporal and spatial distribution characteristics of climate change and meteorological risk were quantitatively analyzed by linear trend analysis and correlation analysis. The results showed that in the past 50 years, the average field temperature in the tobacco-growing areas of Hengyang increased significantly, the fluctuation of precipitation increased significantly, and the average sunshine hours decreased significantly. The risk of low temperature was mainly concentrated in the elongation stage. The risk of low temperature in Hengnan County and Hengyang County was relatively high and had a decreasing trend in recent years. The risk of high temperature mainly occurred in the later stage of maturation. The risk of high temperature in the southern region, centered in Changning, was relatively high. The increase of high temperature risk in the mature stage was significantly positively correlated with the increase of average temperature, there was a significant negative correlation between the risk of high temperature and precipitation. The southern regions of Changning and Leiyang had a relatively high rainstorm risk with an increasing trend, which may be related to the increase of rainfall in the later stage of maturity. In Leiyang, the drought degree at the elongation stage was more obvious and showed an increasing tendency, while the drought risk was relatively higher at the peak-early maturity stage in Hengyang County and Qidong County, and the drought risk was alleviated in other counties except Hengyang County. Finally, several practical recommendations are proposed for production. Preventive measures should be implemented at different growth stages to address varying meteorological risks, mitigating the adverse effects of weather disasters on tobacco growth and quality.

Key words: Hengyang, climate change, meteorological risk, spatial and temporal distribution, tobacco growth period

XIAO Jian, XU Di, LIU Hui, CHEN Jiaxin, PENG Shuangzi, CAO Zhihui, TANG Zixi, YANG Chaomin. Temporal and Spatial Distribution Characteristics of Climate Change and Meteorological Risk in Tobacco-Growing Areas of Hengyang in Recent 50 Years[J]. Journal of Agriculture, 2025, 15(10): 92-100.

Figures/Tables 13

References 23

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主要气象风险因素	判定指标	说明
伸根期—旺长期低温	伸根期—旺长期日平均气温≤13℃	反映低温风险发生强度^[12-13]
大田期高温	大田期日最高气温≥35℃	反映高温风险发生强度^[10]
大田期暴雨	大田期累计暴雨日数及降雨量	反映暴雨发生频率及强度^[14]，暴雨定义为日降水量≥50 mm
伸根期干旱	伸根期最长连续无雨日数	反映干旱发生的强度，无雨日定义为日降雨量<0.1 mm 期间允许出现一次降雨量<5 mm的中断^[15]
旺长期—成熟前期干旱	旺长期—成熟前期最长连续无雨日数	反映干旱发生的强度，无雨日定义为日降雨量<0.1 mm 期间允许出现一次降雨量<5 mm的中断^[15]

主要气象风险因素	判定指标	说明
伸根期—旺长期低温	伸根期—旺长期日平均气温≤13℃	反映低温风险发生强度^[12-13]
大田期高温	大田期日最高气温≥35℃	反映高温风险发生强度^[10]
大田期暴雨	大田期累计暴雨日数及降雨量	反映暴雨发生频率及强度^[14]，暴雨定义为日降水量≥50 mm
伸根期干旱	伸根期最长连续无雨日数	反映干旱发生的强度，无雨日定义为日降雨量<0.1 mm 期间允许出现一次降雨量<5 mm的中断^[15]
旺长期—成熟前期干旱	旺长期—成熟前期最长连续无雨日数	反映干旱发生的强度，无雨日定义为日降雨量<0.1 mm 期间允许出现一次降雨量<5 mm的中断^[15]

指标	A	B	C	D	E	F	G	H	I	J	K	L	M
A	1	0.2176*	0.2565*	-0.2122*	0.0851	0.109	0.0635	0.149	0.3662*	-0.0844	-0.8966*	0.2415*	0.1776*
B		1	0.0735	-0.056	0.0536	-0.2714*	0.066	0.1277	0.1372	0.2429*	-0.0582	0.4673*	0.1186
C			1	0.1255	0.0735	0.0036	-0.5836*	0.1452	0.1162	0.1329	-0.2390*	0.2682*	0.8528*
D				1	-0.039	-0.0298	0.1048	0.1217	-0.2368*	0.1919*	0.0621	0.0736	-0.1655*
E					1	-0.0328	-0.0893	0.146	0.0217	0.0114	-0.0862	-0.0795	0.0435
F						1	0.0196	0.3238*	-0.0302	-0.3291*	-0.1384	-0.3149*	-0.0565
G							1	0.5313*	-0.0139	-0.0544	-0.0257	0.0249	-0.5738*
H								1	-0.0333	-0.016	-0.1009	0.0318	-0.1646*
I									1	-0.0031	-0.2837*	0.0831	0.1387
J										1	0.1181	0.2864*	0.0609
K											1	-0.1412	-0.1541
L												1	0.2811*
M							-						1

指标	A	B	C	D	E	F	G	H	I	J	K	L	M
A	1	0.2176*	0.2565*	-0.2122*	0.0851	0.109	0.0635	0.149	0.3662*	-0.0844	-0.8966*	0.2415*	0.1776*
B		1	0.0735	-0.056	0.0536	-0.2714*	0.066	0.1277	0.1372	0.2429*	-0.0582	0.4673*	0.1186
C			1	0.1255	0.0735	0.0036	-0.5836*	0.1452	0.1162	0.1329	-0.2390*	0.2682*	0.8528*
D				1	-0.039	-0.0298	0.1048	0.1217	-0.2368*	0.1919*	0.0621	0.0736	-0.1655*
E					1	-0.0328	-0.0893	0.146	0.0217	0.0114	-0.0862	-0.0795	0.0435
F						1	0.0196	0.3238*	-0.0302	-0.3291*	-0.1384	-0.3149*	-0.0565
G							1	0.5313*	-0.0139	-0.0544	-0.0257	0.0249	-0.5738*
H								1	-0.0333	-0.016	-0.1009	0.0318	-0.1646*
I									1	-0.0031	-0.2837*	0.0831	0.1387
J										1	0.1181	0.2864*	0.0609
K											1	-0.1412	-0.1541
L												1	0.2811*
M							-						1