Abstract:

To study the suitable growth areas and distribution influencing factors of Solidago canadensis L. in China for effective prevention and control, the Maximum Entropy model (Maxent) and ArcGIS software were used to predict the potential habitat of Solidago canadensis L. in China under current and future (2041—2060 and 2061—2080) climate models. The results showed that the predicted AUC value of the current fitness zone was 0.933 and the model prediction results were ideal; the distribution of the fitness zone was mainly influenced by the maximum temperature and precipitation; the potential fitness zone was mainly distributed in east and central China, mainly in the whole area of Shanghai, south-central Jiangsu Province, central Anhui Province, northern Jiangxi Province, eastern Hunan Province, eastern Hubei Province, and some parts of Zhejiang Province and the area along the coastline. Over time, from 2041 to 2060, the area of the middle and high fitness zones will increase by 1060400 km² and the low fitness zone will increase by 1106200 km² compared with the present; from 2061 to 2080, the area of the high and middle fitness zones will increase by 1109900 km² and the low fitness zone will increase by 1115500 km² compared with the present. Overall, under future climate change, the habitat zone of Solidago canadensis L. shows a trend of continuous expansion, and it is suggested that the relevant authorities should develop a responsive hierarchical management strategy based on the changing trend of its potential habitat zone to prevent further spread.

Key words: invasive plant, Solidago canadensis L., Maxent model, climate change