Abstract:

To understand the distribution rule and change trend of climate-induced potential productivity of natural vegetation and its response to climate change in Heilongjiang from 1970 to 2014, the authors used the Miami model, wavelet analysis and EOF to analyze the variation characteristics of the climate-induced potential productivity of natural vegetation based on observation data of 80 meteorological stations. The results showed that: the four types of climate-induced potential productivity (air temperature, precipitation, evapotranspiration and standard climate-induced potential productivity) had increased since 1970, however, there were hidden dangers in food security from 2000 to 2014. The standard climate-induced potential productivity (W) and evapotranspiration climate-induced potential productivity had similar interdecadal variation. The major periodic of the four types of climate-induced potential productivity was 26 to 31 years. The W presented alternate positive and negative variations in space, and it was positively correlated with the air temperature, precipitation, and evapotranspiration, the air temperature was the main restriction factor. Warm-wet climate is beneficial to W, and the potential productivity will increase within a range of 7.41% to 14.82%. The results could provide a basic method for optimizing agricultural distribution, improving the utilization of agricultural climate resources and promoting stable and high yield production of grain crops.

Key words: Vegetation, Climate Change, Miami Model, Climate-induced Potential Productivity, Heilongjiang