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Journal of Agriculture ›› 2024, Vol. 14 ›› Issue (2): 60-67.doi: 10.11923/j.issn.2095-4050.cjas2023-0068

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Prediction of Potential Suitable Areas for Protective Plant Opisthopappus in China

SHI Jinmei1(), LI Yujing2, LI Zhouxu2, HAN Hongying3, CHANG Yue1, LI Liangtao1   

  1. 1 College of Landscape and Ecological Engineering, Hebei University of Technology, Handan 056038, Hebei, China
    2 Shexian Forestry Development Service Center, Shexian 056499, Hebei, China
    3 Handan Forestry and Grassland Research Center, Handan 056002, Hebei, China
  • Received:2023-03-14 Revised:2023-07-24 Online:2024-02-20 Published:2024-02-16


In order to analyze the geographical distribution and influencing factors of Opisthopappus in China, MaxEnt model and ArcGIS software were used to predict the potential suitable distribution areas of Opisthopappus in China. The results showed as follows: Opisthopappus was mainly distributed in the junction of Henan, Hebei and Shanxi Provinces. The distribution range of the suitable area was 31.5°-40.5°N and 112.5°-120.3°E. The total area of suitable area was 218600 km2. Six environmental variables including the average temperature in the coldest quarter, annual precipitation, the ratio of diurnal and annual temperature differences, the standard deviation of seasonal temperature changes, the lowest temperature in the coldest month and the average temperature in the driest season, were the main factors affecting the distribution of Opisthopappus. The AUC value of MaxEnt model was 0.994, indicating that the prediction result of the model was excellent. Under the future climate scenario change, the potential suitable area of Opisthopappus is gradually reduced, so relevant departments should pay great attention to it and take effective protection measures actively.

Key words: Opisthopappus Shih, Opisthopappus longilobum, MaxEnt model, climate change, endangered