Study on Agricultural Production Characteristics and Adaptation Based on Resource Endowment Utilization Under Background of Climate Change in Ningxia - A Case Study of Maize

doi:10.11923/j.issn.2095-4050.cjas2024-0183

Abstract

Abstract:

In order to explore the high-quality development path of agriculture adapting to climate change in Ningxia Hui Autonomous Region, this paper analyzed the characteristics of resource endowment utilization based on methods such as literature analysis, mathematical statistics, and multi-scenario emission simulation, in Ningxia. The results showed that the air temperature presented a significant rising trend, the total precipitation presented a decreasing trend, the drought trend was obvious, and the light resources generally presented a decreasing trend from north to south, in Ningxia. Over the past 20 years, the sown area of grain crops in Ningxia had shown a highly significant decreasing trend. The sown area of maize had increased by 57.0%, with an average increase of 101000 hectares every 10 years. In the next 30 years, the number of days from sowing to ripening would gradually increase from north to south, and the interdecadal trend would be decreasing. Under the influence of climate change, agricultural production will face the declining coupling degree of arable land with climate and water resources, and the pressure of grain production will be increasing in the future, in Ningxia. On this basis, this study puts forward suggestions on how to adapt to climate change and promote high-quality development of agriculture, based on the characteristics of resource endowment. It proposed to adjust the crop planting industrial layout in Ningxia to promote the planting structure in response to climate change in a coordinated manner. And it is also proposed facilitating the establishment of an overall efficiency improvement system for agricultural scientific and technological innovation in-depth exploration of the impact laws and adaptation mechanisms of climate change, aiming to provide decision-making references for the high-quality development of agriculture in Ningxia and offer suggestions for building a strong agricultural country.

Key words: climate change, food security, agricultural production, resource endowment, Ningxia

DONG Wanlin, ZHAO Hui, LI Qiuyue, HU Qi. Study on Agricultural Production Characteristics and Adaptation Based on Resource Endowment Utilization Under Background of Climate Change in Ningxia - A Case Study of Maize[J]. Journal of Agriculture, 2026, 16(1): 65-75.

Figures/Tables 13

References 19

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模式	排放情景	时期	播种—开花天数/d	播种—成熟天数/d	产量/(kg/hm²)
灌溉模式	中等排放情景	2021—2030	93.2	148.0	5597.9
		2031—2040	91.4	146.1	6546.3
		2041—2050	91.2	145.2	6230.3
	高等排放情景	2021—2030	92.1	147.9	6614.4
		2031—2040	91.4	146.6	7226.6
		2041—2050	89.1	142.2	7256.8
潜在模式	中等排放情景	2031—2040	91.4	146.1	9564.4
	中等排放情景	2041—2050	91.2	145.2	8747.0
	高等排放情景	2031—2040	91.4	146.6	9410.6
	高等排放情景	2041—2050	89.1	142.2	9553.9

模式	排放情景	时期	播种—开花天数/d	播种—成熟天数/d	产量/(kg/hm²)
灌溉模式	中等排放情景	2021—2030	93.2	148.0	5597.9
		2031—2040	91.4	146.1	6546.3
		2041—2050	91.2	145.2	6230.3
	高等排放情景	2021—2030	92.1	147.9	6614.4
		2031—2040	91.4	146.6	7226.6
		2041—2050	89.1	142.2	7256.8
潜在模式	中等排放情景	2031—2040	91.4	146.1	9564.4
	中等排放情景	2041—2050	91.2	145.2	8747.0
	高等排放情景	2031—2040	91.4	146.6	9410.6
	高等排放情景	2041—2050	89.1	142.2	9553.9