陇东苹果腐烂病发生机理分析及预报模型建立

doi:10.11923/j.issn.2095-4050.cjas2024-0138

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

本研究选取2011—2023年陇东苹果种植区域最大最具有代表性的宁县气象观测资料和宁县农业技术推广中心苹果腐烂病资料，采用统计学方法、相关性分析法对陇东苹果腐烂病的发生机理进行分析研究。结果表明：对陇东苹果产量影响最严重的腐烂病发生在春季，3月下旬开始，4—5月发病最多，6月发病面积显著减少；其年际变化为2011—2013年为苹果腐烂病高发期，且发病面积呈逐年增加趋势；2014—2019年发生面积呈减小趋势，2018年为13 a来腐烂病发生的最小值，2020年是苹果腐烂病暴发的一年，实际发生面积达 13507 hm²，2021—2023年苹果腐烂病的发生面积逐渐减小；花期平均气温对腐烂病以正影响为主，膨大期以负影响为主；果实膨大期的最高气温对腐烂病以负影响为主；各个阶段的最低气温对腐烂病均以负影响为主；平均相对湿度在花期以负影响为主，在果实膨大期以正影响为主，降水量对腐烂病的影响主要表现在果实膨大期的正影响；风速、日照在花期为正影响，在果实膨大期为负影响；以影响显著的气象因子对春季高发时段建立多元线性回归模型，并对建立的回归模型进行检验，拟合值与实测结果变化基本一致，表明建立的该预报模型可以应用于陇东苹果腐烂病的预报预测中。本研究对于提高陇东果业产值及乡村经济振兴具有重大意义。

关键词: 苹果腐烂病, 气象因子, 相关性分析, 多元线性回归模型, 均方根检验

Abstract:

This study selected the meteorological observation data of Ningxian County, which is the largest and most representative apple planting area in Longdong from 2011 to 2023, and the apple rot disease data of Ningxian Agricultural Technology Extension Centertoanalyze the occurrence mechanism of apple rot disease in Longdongusing statistical and correlation analysis methods. The results showed that apple rot disease of the most severe impact on production occurred in spring, starting in late March, with the highest incidence from April to May and a significant decrease in June; the interannual variation showed that 2011-2013 was the period with a high incidence of apple rot disease and an increasing trend year by year. The occurrence area of apple rot disease showed a decreasing trend from 2014 to 2019, 2018 was the lowest value in 13 years, 2020 was the year of apple rot disease outbreak, and the incidence area of apple rot disease gradually decreased from 2021 to 2023; the average temperature during the flowering period had a positive impact on rot disease, while during the swelling period, it had a negative impact; the highest temperature during the fruit enlargement period had a negative impact on rot disease; the lowest temperature at each stage had a negative impact on rot disease; the average relative humidity had a negative impact during the flowering period and a positive impact during the fruit enlargement period. The impact of precipitation on rot disease was mainly manifested in a positive impact during the fruit enlargement period; wind speed and sunlight had a positive impact during the flowering period and a negative impact during the fruit enlargement period; a regression model was established for the high incidence period in spring based on significant meteorological factors, and the established regression model was tested. The fitted values were consistent with the measured results, indicating that the established prediction model can be applied to the prediction of rot disease. This study is of great significance for improving the output value of Longdong fruit industry and promoting rural economic revitalization.

Key words: apple rots disease, meteorological factors, correlation analysis, multiple linear regression model, model validation

张洪芬, 邱宁刚, 李祥科. 陇东苹果腐烂病发生机理分析及预报模型建立[J]. 农学学报, 2025, 15(10): 70-74.

ZHANG Hongfen, QIU Ninggang, LI Xiangke. Analysis of Occurrence Mechanism of Apple Rot Disease in Longdong and Establishment of Forecast Model[J]. Journal of Agriculture, 2025, 15(10): 70-74.

图/表 3

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