关键词: 菏泽市, 气候变暖, 农业生产, 影响, 应对

Abstract:

This study investigates the impact of climate warming on agricultural production in Heze City under the context of ecological protection in the Yellow River Basin, and proposes countermeasures. It aims to provide a scientific basis for the government to guide agricultural production and respond to climate warming, thereby achieving sustainable economic and social development. Utilizing daily temperature observation data of national basic meteorological stations in Heze City from 1971 to 2022, and the grain yield data provided by the Heze Municipal Bureau of Statistics, this research employed methods such as the linear regression equation method, correlation coefficient method, M-K test and abrupt change analysis, and Morlet wavelet periodicity analysis to study the spatiotemporal distribution characteristics of temperature in Heze City. It analyzed the impact of climate warming on agriculture against the backdrop of ecological protection in the Yellow River Basin and proposed strategies and response measures. The results indicate that: (1) the annual average temperature in Heze City decreases from south to north; from 1971 to 2022, the temperature in Heze City showed a significant increasing trend, rising at a rate of 0.4°C/10a; the extreme maximum temperature and extreme minimum temperature in Heze City both showed an increasing trend, with climate tendency rates of 0.48°C/10a and 0.44°C/10a, respectively; the monthly temperature trends across the 9 stations in Heze City over the years were relatively consistent, showing an inverted V-shape; The annual average temperature in Heze City shows a significant warming trend, the intersection point occurred in 2006, confirming an abrupt change that began in that year; when the temperature guarantee rate was the same, the annual average temperature in the counties of Heze City increased from north to south; the annual average temperature in Heze City mainly exhibits periodic variation patterns on time scales of 13-22 years and 4-10 years, with significant cyclical changes. (2) Climate warming has led to an increase in thermal conditions for agricultural production, significantly reducing the probability of low-temperature cold damage to crops; influenced by climate warming, agricultural meteorological disasters frequently occur in Heze City, losses from droughts and floods have intensified, and agricultural yield fluctuations have increased; climate warming has caused changes in the growth periods of crops, but grain yield continues to show an upward trend; climate warming leads to an increase in the occurrence of crop diseases and insect pests, resulting in a rise in the application of pesticides and chemical fertilizers, which in turn drives up agricultural costs. (3) To better respond to and adapt to future climate warming, several countermeasures and suggestions are proposed to address the impact of climate warming on agriculture in Heze City, providing a scientific basis for agricultural adaptation to climate warming and meteorological disaster prevention and reduction in Heze City.

Key words: Heze City, climate warming, agricultural production, impact, adaptive strategies