Abstract:

To evaluate the influence of meteorological factors on wheat yield, make rational use of climate resources and improve wheat yield in southern Shandong, we analyzed the relationship between winter wheat yield and main meteorological factors in southern Shandong from 2008 to 2017 by using the methods of grey correlation and stepwise regression. The results of grey correlation analysis showed that: the main meteorological factors affecting winter wheat yield in southern Shandong were orderly ≥10℃ accumulated temperature, the precipitation during the growth period, ≥0℃ accumulated temperature and the cooling capacity, ≥20℃ accumulated temperature and sunshine hours, with the correlation coefficient of 0.4721, 0.4201, 0.3992, 0.3756, 0.3621 and 0.3131, respectively; the results of stepwise regression analysis were consistent with the results of grey correlation analysis, ≥10℃ accumulated temperature was the main factor affecting winter wheat yield and was followed by precipitation, and both of them caused positive effects; the regression equation (P=0.0408, R ²=0.9811) could be applied to the prediction of winter wheat yield in southern Shandong.

Key words: Southern Shandong, Main Meteorological Factors, Winter Wheat Yield, Correlation Coefficient, Accumulated Temperature, Regression Analysis