Abstract:

To assess the farmers’ cognition on climate change and implement the action of improving the quality and efficiency of meteorological services for farmers, the response of phenological period to climate change was studied. Based on the phenological period data of Jiamusi City from 1993 to 2022, temperature and precipitation data from 1961 to 2022 and climate change perception data of farmers, we analyzed the relationship between climate change and phenological period and the farmers' perception of climate change with the mathematical statistics methods. In recent 30 a, the changes in the spring phenological period in the Sanjiang Plain have all shown an early trend, while the changes in the autumn phenological period have all shown a delayed trend. The trend of the dandelion phenological period shows the most significant changes, with the germination date of dandelion advancing at a rate of 5.5 d/10 a and the withering date delaying at a rate of 10.6 d/10 a; there are 8 pairs of extremely significant correlations and 6 pairs of significant correlations between temperature, precipitation, and phenological periods in spring and autumn, with 7 pairs of positive correlations and 7 pairs of negative correlations. The changes in the spring phenology are mainly influenced by temperature, while the changes in the autumn phenology are influenced by precipitation; the farmer’s perception results of temperature changes were basically consistent with the measured data, accuracy rate reached above 80%, and there were differences between the precipitation change trend perceived by farmers and the measured meteorological data, and the accuracy rate was 58.0%. The accuracy of the natural phenomenon phenological perception results was lower than the perception results of temperature and precipitation changes. With the increase of temperature and precipitation, the occurrence date of the phenology period is advanced and the end date is delayed, the phenology period shows an extended trend. Farmers have a more sensitive and relatively accurate perception of climate change related to agricultural production. The research results provide scientific basis and reference for formulating effective climate change adaptation policies for agricultural production.

Key words: Sanjiang Plain, climate change, phenological period, farmers, perception accuracy