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农学学报

农学学报 ›› 2012, Vol. 2 ›› Issue (4): 63-68.

所属专题： 现代农业发展与乡村振兴； 农业气象

• 农业信息 农业气象 • 上一篇    下一篇

气候变化对农业生产的影响——以山东省诸城市为例

吴建梅 孙金森 陈林祥 马英洁 徐桂华   

  • 收稿日期:2011-05-25 修回日期:2012-03-30 出版日期:2012-04-20 发布日期:2012-04-20

Climate Change Impact on Agricultural Production——Take Zhucheng City as an Example

  • Received:2011-05-25 Revised:2012-03-30 Online:2012-04-20 Published:2012-04-20

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摘要：

为了应对气候变化对农业生产所产生的影响，找出其变化规律，更好的指导当地农业生产，对诸气候变化进行统计分析，揭示诸城市气候变化特征，分析对农业生产的影响，合理指导当地农业生产；选用诸城市1961—2010年的气温与降水资料，采用线性倾向估计方法分析其年、季变化特征。结果表明：近50年诸城市年平均气温总体呈显著上升趋势（0.383℃/10年），20世纪90年代后升温明显。各季平均气温亦呈现上升趋势，冬季气温增幅最大。年、夏季、秋季降水量总体呈下降趋势，春季和冬季降水量呈上升趋势。气候变暖对农业生产利大于弊。极端降水事件有所增加，干旱和洪涝可能趋于增加，加剧了农业灾害的发生；随着气温变暖，极端降水事件的增加，对农业生产影响较大，加强预报，有效防御气象灾害，减少经济损失。

关键词: 日光温室 CO2 番茄, 日光温室 CO2 番茄, 产量, 生长量

Abstract:

Zhucheng climate change on the statistical analysis, reveals the characteristics of climate change, analysis of the impact on agricultural production, a reasonable guide to local agricultural production; use Zhucheng 1961 to 2010 temperature and precipitation data, using linear trend analysis of annual, season variation; The results showed that: Zhucheng the past 50 years the average temperature was significantly increased overall trend (0.383℃ per 10 years), after 1990’s, rapid warming. The average temperature in each season was also on the rise, the biggest increase in winter temperatures. In the summer and autumn precipitation is decreased in spring and winter precipitation increasing. The climate change on agricultural production more good than harm. An increase in extreme precipitation events, droughts and floods may tend to increase, exacerbated by agricultural disasters. With warming, the increase in extreme precipitation events, a greater impact on agricultural production, strengthen forecasting, effective prevention of meteorological disasters, to reduce economic losses.