关键词: 鱼台水稻, 积温, 生长模型, 相关分析, 回归分析, 历史回代, 模型验证, 产量预报模型, 产量因素

Abstract:

The aims were to study the growth and development law of Yutai rice under different accumulated temperature conditions, and to explore the influence of sunshine hours and temperature in different growth stages on the yield factors of Yutai rice, and to provide agricultural meteorological service basis for optimal planting of rice in Yutai area. A Logistic growth model was constructed based on the growth index data of Yutai rice from 2017 to 2022 and meteorological factors such as accumulated temperature during growth period. By using statistical methods such as correlation analysis and regression analysis, the influence of light and temperature in different growth stages on rice yield factors was analyzed, and the prediction model of yield factors was established accordingly. The results showed that the overall accuracy of Logistic model was high in the simulation of rice growth and development in Yutai, and the Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) between the simulated value and the measured value was between 0.591 and 5.100, the Normalized Root Mean Squared Error (nRMSE) was between 0.087 and 0.107, and the R² between the simulated value and the measured value was between 0.970 and 0.996. The number of sunshine hours in tillering, jointing, booting and grain filling maturity of rice was significantly correlated with yield, and the accumulated temperature in heading and grain filling maturity was significantly correlated with yield. The prediction model of rice yield and grain number per ear was established by multiple linear regression method, which was verified by historical band and histogram. The prediction model has high accuracy.

Key words: Yutai rice, accumulated temperature, growth model, correlation analysis, regression analysis, historical generation, modelling verification, yield forecasting model, yield factor