Optimum Sowing Date and Variety Selection of Potato in Northern Shanxi Province in The Future Based on DSSAT Crop Model

doi:10.11923/j.issn.2095-4050.cjas2023-0187

Abstract

Abstract:

The paper aimed to explore the change characteristics of optimum sowing date and cultivar heat resistance of potato with climate change in North Shanxi based on DSSAT crop, and the yield increase effect of the optimum sowing date or optimum variety was quantitatively analyzed. The simulation experiment was designed with 40 management inputs of sowing date and 7 temperature sensitivity coefficients (TC) under baseline year and future climate change scenarios in Yunzhou of Datong City. The results showed that, in the future, the rising temperature and increase of CO₂ concentration would advance the optimum sowing date of potato, and the change of optimum sowing date was mainly due to the rising temperature. Among them, the optimal sowing date would advance 4 days and 5 days at 450 μmol/mol CO₂ with 1.5℃ warming and 550 μmol/mol CO₂ with 2.0℃ warming, respectively. Adopting the management of optimum sowing date could mitigate climatic negative effects and was in varying degrees of yield increasing effect under each climate change scenario. Among them, the potato yield would increase 10.2% and 20.7% respectively under 450 μmol/mol CO₂ with 1.5℃ warming and 550 μmol/mol CO₂ with 2.0℃ warming. Production at this time would increase the yield by 12.3% and 20.8%, respectively, over the base year. If changing the varieties with high temperature sensitivity, the heat resistance and yield could increase appropriately, but the increase was limited. Therefore, in the future, early sowing date or cultivation of new varieties with high temperature sensitivity can be adopted in northern Shanxi to reduce the adverse impact of future climate change and ensure stable and high yield of potato.

Key words: northern Shanxi Province, potato, DSSAT model, climate change, adaptability measure

ZHANG Na, MA Yali, ZHANG Jianxin, WANG Dayong. Optimum Sowing Date and Variety Selection of Potato in Northern Shanxi Province in The Future Based on DSSAT Crop Model[J]. Journal of Agriculture, 2024, 14(9): 54-61.

Figures/Tables 7

References 33

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品种	品种遗传参数
品种	G2/[cm²/(m²·d)]	G3/[g/(m²·d)]	PD	P2	TC
紫花白	1200	22	0.9	0.7	21

品种	品种遗传参数
品种	G2/[cm²/(m²·d)]	G3/[g/(m²·d)]	PD	P2	TC
紫花白	1200	22	0.9	0.7	21