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农学学报

农学学报 ›› 2026, Vol. 16 ›› Issue (3): 21-27.doi: 10.11923/j.issn.2095-4050.cjas2024-0195

• 植物保护 • 上一篇    下一篇

武汉春季黄瓜霜霉病气象指数构建及风险特征分析

张芳丽1(), 孟翠丽1(), 杨绍丽2, 陆鹏程1, 刘可群1,3, 龚琳鑫1   

  1. 1 武汉农业气象试验站， 武汉 430040
    2 武汉市农业科学院， 武汉 430065
    3 武汉区域气候中心， 武汉 430074
  • 收稿日期:2024-10-31 修回日期:2025-09-29 出版日期:2026-03-20 发布日期:2026-03-19
  • 通讯作者:
    孟翠丽，女，1984年出生，陕西大荔人，高级工程师，硕士，主要从事设施农业和都市农业气象灾害的监测与评估。通信地址：430040 武汉市东西湖区金银湖街环湖西路柏环一路11号 武汉农业气象试验站，E-mail：。
  • 作者简介:

    张芳丽，女，1995年出生，河南周口人，工程师，硕士，研究方向：农业气象学。通信地址：430040 武汉市东西湖区金银湖街环湖西路柏环一路11号 武汉农业气象试验站，E-mail：。

  • 基金资助:
    湖北省气象局科技项目“湖北省蔬菜霜霉病气象等级预测模型及微气候防控技术研究”(2022Y15); 武汉市农业科学院创新体系项目“区域性重要农业有害生物（病虫草）基础性长期性观测监测”(JCZX202301-2)

Construction of Meteorological Index and Risk Characteristics Analysis for Cucumber Downy Mildew in Spring in Wuhan

ZHANG Fangli1(), MENG Cuili1(), YANG Shaoli2, LU Pengcheng1, LIU Kequn1,3, GONG Linxin1   

  1. 1 Agro-meteorology Station of Wuhan, Wuhan 430040
    2 Wuhan Academy of Agricultural Sciences, Wuhan 430065
    3 Wuhan Regional Climate Center, Wuhan 430074
  • Received:2024-10-31 Revised:2025-09-29 Online:2026-03-20 Published:2026-03-19

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摘要：

为提升武汉春季设施黄瓜霜霉病的精准防控水平，本研究基于1951—2021年武汉气象观测数据及2011—2021年病害监测资料，筛选温湿度为核心驱动因子，构建黄瓜霜霉病促病气象指数及适宜度等级标准，并评估指数准确率，分析病害发生流行的气候风险特征。结果表明：（1）促病指数对病害发生强度的评估准确率达100%，对流行初日的预测准确率为75%，可客观反映病害发生的时间与程度；（2）1951—2021年，霜霉病大发生年数和适宜及以上流行天数（DESA）呈“前40 a稳定、后31 a先减后增” 的趋势，2011—2021年大发生年数较2001—2010年增加了1倍，2006—2021年DESA天数增速达17.2 d/10a，病害流行风险与强度显著增强；（3）武汉春季黄瓜霜霉病适宜流行期平均始于3月19日，3月中旬进入中高风险期、下旬进入高风险期，4月上旬—下旬风险最高，且近31 a病害早发趋势显著（早发年占比提升2.4倍）；（4）设施环境下病害适宜流行期初日较露地提前1个月。本研究构建的促病气象指数可为黄瓜霜霉病的监测预警提供科学工具，建议植保部门于3月上旬启动专项监测并及时调控设施温湿度。

关键词: 黄瓜霜霉病, 促病气象指数, 发病规律, 风险特征, 气象因子, 监测预警, 防控

Abstract:

In order to improve the precise prevention and control level for downy mildew in facility-grown cucumber in spring in Wuhan, this study constructed a disease-promoting meteorological index and suitability grading standards based on meteorological observation data of Wuhan from 1951 to 2021 and disease monitoring data from 2011 to 2021, with identified temperature and humidity as core driving factors. Furthermore, the index accuracy was evaluated and climate risk characteristics of disease occurrence and epidemic were analyzed. The results show that: (1) the disease-promoting meteorological index has an accuracy of 100% in assessing the intensity of the disease, and an accuracy of 75% in predicting the initial day of the epidemic, which can objectively reflect the time and extent of the disease. (2) From 1951 to 2021, the outbreak years of downy mildew and the number of suitable and above epidemic days (DESA) showed a trend of "stable in the first 40 years, and first decreased and then increased in the last 31 years". The outbreak years from 2011 to 2021 doubled compared with 2001-2010, and the growth rate of DESA days from 2006 to 2021 reached 17.2 d/10a, the epidemic risk and intensity of the disease were significantly enhanced. (3) The suitable prevalence period of cucumber downy mildew in Wuhan begins on average on March 19th. It enters the medium-high risk period of downy mildew prevalence in mid-March, the high-risk period after late March, and the highest risk period is from early April to late April. Moreover the disease has a significant trend of early onset in the past 31 years (the proportion of early-onset years increased by 2.4 times). (4) The beginning of the suitable epidemic period of the disease in the facility environment is 1 month earlier than in the open field. The disease-promoting meteorological index constructed in this study can provide a scientific tool for monitoring and early warning of cucumber downy mildew. It is recommended that the plant protection department initiate special monitoring in early March and promptly regulate the temperature and humidity of facilities.

Key words: cucumber downy mildew, disease-promoting meteorological index, pathogenesis regularity, risk characteristic, meteorological factors, monitoring and early warning, prevention